Few gave Hull City much hope of staying up in the Premier League this season, but they’ve taken eight points from their first four games. They appear to be thriving.
Hull City were widely written off before a ball was kicked in the 2026-27 Premier League season. In fact, as soon as their promotion was confirmed by success in the Championship play-offs, some were already predicting them to threaten Derby County’s record for the lowest points total in Premier League history.
Such predictions were obviously a little reactive and dramatic, but they reflected some of the discourse around what was considered a very surprising promotion.
After all, Hull’s campaign was hardly emphatic. Their underlying numbers in the Championship painted a picture of a team who overachieved massively when looking at our expected points (xPts) model, which simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the expected goals (xG) value of all shots taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss); each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in every match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
Of course, this isn’t an exact science as xG data doesn’t account for a lot of additional factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams have performed, especially over a prolonged period.
In the Championship last term, Hull amassed 73 points; their xPts was just 53.1. Only Sheffield Wednesday (30.0) recorded fewer xPts than the Tigers. Essentially, had the real table reflected the xPts table, they’d have finished in the bottom three and been relegated.
Hull’s overperformance of 19.9 in relation to their xPts was the biggest in the Championship. On that evidence, a season in the Premier League looked daunting.
But as early into the 2026-27 season as it still is, Sergej Jakirovic’s men have confounded all expectations.
Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was their latest shock result. Up against the Blues’ in-form front three of João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers, few gave them any chance, even accounting for their hosts’ unimpressive defensive record this term.
Hull fell behind early to Rogers’ clinical finish, but found themselves 2-1 up at half-time thanks to a couple of
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