A slump in support for Sweden’s populist right party may have paved the way for a return to power for the country’s left-wing political alliance, preventing a party with neo-Nazi roots from taking government for the first time.
But yesterday’s election has proven a nail-biter that could take days to resolve.
While several tight races and postal votes were yet to be settled, and government was still up for grabs by either side of politics, there were two clear losers.
It was a historically bad election for the main opposition party, the Social Democrats. Sweden’s equivalent to Labour, on preliminary results, was looking at its lowest share of the vote in more than a century.
And the Sweden Democrats, a nationalistic party that grew out of fringe neo-fascist roots to become a major political player, has lost ground for the first time since it was founded in 1988.
It is a historic turning point for the anti-immigrant party which some expected to enter government for the first time, as similar parties gain ground elsewhere in Europe.
How did Sweden vote?
By 4am in Stockholm 95% of the country’s 6,626 voting districts had reported, and the country’s electoral authority was forecasting a narrow win for the country’s left bloc – though it may be days before the result is certain.
On these numbers, Social Democrat leader and opposition leader Magdalena Andersson, who was the country’s first female PM in 2021, would regain power from Moderate Ulf Kristersson.
However she would do so in a much weaker position than the last time she occupied Sager House, Stockholm’s equivalent to Number 10. The Social Democrats’ total of 100 seats matches their result in 2018, which was their worst since 1928. And their 28.1% vote share would be the lowest since 1908.
Social Democrats party leader Magdalena Andersson has not claimed victory yet (Jonas Ekströmer/TT News Agency via AP)The two biggest winners of the night were the two minor parties in the left bloc, the Left (socialist) party and the Green Party, who lifted their support by 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Their gains, plus a boost for the Centre Party, more than offset the 2.3% fall in support (and loss of 7 seats) for the Social Democrats, picking up three seats for the bloc as a whole – assuming the Centre Party reaffirms the alliance.
On the right, the three more centrist members of the right block made gains, with the governing Moderate Party gaining 0.8% in the poll, picking up most – but not all – of the voters who deserted the Sweden Democrats, and the Liberals defying predictions they would disappear from parliament altogether.
On the preliminary count, this translated to a net gain of eight seats – but this failed to balance out the Sweden Democrats’ losses.
That party had the second-most votes in the 2022 election, with 20.5% of the ballots and 73 seats in parliament, which it used to put the Moderates in government with a formal confidence and supply deal.
But in this election it fell to (on the latest count) 17.6% of the vote, translating to 62 seats. This put it back in third place behind the Moderate party. It is the first time the party has lost ground either in total vote or number of seats in the Riksdag.
On the latest count, the left bloc’s total of 176 seats gave it the edge over the right’s 173.
What did the party leaders say?
Andersson declined to claim victory overnight. In a social media post, she said the Social Democrats “always stand ready to take responsibility for our country”.
“The result looks set to be very close,” she said. “Right now, we are in the lead. If this holds, Sweden will have a new government. Regardless of the final outcome, there is every reason to find a new spirit of cooperation in Swedish politics.”
Kristersson also acknowledged the election results were not clear, but said the three parties on the left had failed to gather a parliamentary majority.
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has some “complicated conversations” to come after a nail-biting election (Photo by Christine Olsson/TT / TT News Agency / AFP via Getty Images)Kristersson said he will contact other party leaders, and even if the preliminary results hold up, he will investigate whether forming a possible government coalition – with the Centre Party his most likely path to power.
“I see a number of fairly complicated conversations ahead of me,” he told the national broadcaster.
SD leader Jimmie Åkesson gave a short speech reflecting on an “exciting” night.
“It is obvious that we have lost a few percentage points from the election results four years ago,” he said, in translated comments reported by SVT. “I still feel that we have been winners in this election campaign, because there are so many more people in our country who no longer find it difficult to say that they are a Sweden Democrat.”
He then quickly left the venue without answering questions from journalists, and remained silent on social media.
Could the result change?
If just two of the seats from the preliminary count change, the right could retain power.
Some early votes and votes from abroad will not be counted until Wednesday or Thursday. SVT reported that over 3.6 million Swedes voted early this year, a new record.
Sweden has a history of suspenseful results: in 1979 so-called “Wednesday votes” from postal ballots reversed a lead held by the Socialist bloc and put the Moderate right into power.
The final result may not be known until the weekend – and after that, complicated negotiations over political alliances between the eight parties could take weeks. In late September the newly elected Rikstag votes for the first time to try to choose a prime minister.
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