I’m not breaking new ground when I say I’m very concerned about Daniel Palencia right now. We all know the story of his season, from the high highs (and early ramp-up) of the World Baseball Classic win to the injury issues and stuff decline. None of it means he can’t figure things out within the span of an outing or two, but I wanted to point out just how concerning things are.
Since returning from his flexor strain on August 21 (after a rehab stint that was, itself, a little concerning), Palencia has a 9.95 ERA over 6.1 innings, and has allowed a run in five of his seven outings. We might have some comfort if it were just a bad set of small sample results, but I think anyone watching has seen that the stuff just isn’t there.
For example, Palencia’s fastball has averaged 98.5 mph, down from 99.5 mph pre-injury, and down from 99.6 mph last year. It has less relative cut, and has been a seriously negative value pitch since his return. Take all of that, and it’s basically the same story for the slider, too. And forget about the splitter. He’s basically not throwing it right now at all.
Put it all together with the obvious command issues, and you’ve got a recipe for a guy who only last night got his first whiff in September.
Saying that another way, Daniel Palencia got one whiff on 19 pitches last night. Last time out, he got zero whiffs on 16 pitches. Time before that? Zero whiffs on 13 pitches. Before that? Zero whiffs on 12 pitches.
You are reading that correctly. Daniel Palencia has gotten ONE whiff – just one single swing and miss – over his last 60 pitches. For a guy whose success as a late-inning reliever is fundamentally predicated on having swing-and-miss stuff, I cannot put my concerns in brighter lights than that.
Last week, Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy was talking about Palencia’s mechanics, and how that could be the main driver here (which, if true, I hope he’s very close to figuring it out):
Tommy Hottovy on Daniel Palencia's rough stretch: "I think it's a little bit more of a confidence thing. He wasn't feeling great mechanically, I think, as he was getting back during his rehab and trying to kind of get things in sync. And some of that does translate into not… pic.twitter.com/Nx9lJM88oD
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