This is the first time that researchers have identified this link, known as a climate teleconnection. The results could improve forecasts of extreme weather in the western U.S., which, in turn, could improve warnings for coastal communities and potentially save lives as well as billions of dollars in property damage, the study's authors say.
State-of-the-art forecast systems, which rely heavily on ocean conditions like El Niño, failed to predict this extreme rainfall, said study first author Yongkang Xue, a distinguished professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at UCLA. The record precipitation occurred during La Niña years, which are typically associated with dry conditions in California and neighboring regions, further complicating the picture.
Atmospheric rivers are narrow, elongated corridors of intense water vapor transport. They are key drivers of precipitation and floods in the western U.S., and in this case, they interacted with giant waves in Earth's atmosphere, called Rossby waves, to produce devastating rainfall in the winters of 2017 and 2023.
Rossby waves are waves in Earth's atmosphere that wrap around high- and low-pressure systems. When there is an atmospheric disturbance, it can propagate in what is known as a Rossby wave train. (Image credit: NOAA Climate)
A Rossby wave train is a series of waves traveling in the same direction and at regular intervals around alternating high- and low-pressure systems. As the wave trains initiated over the Tibetan Plateau reached the northeastern Pacific Ocean, they suddenly broke, and this supercharged the weather above California and adjacent states, Xue explained.
The findings, published Wednesday (Sept. 9) in the journal Science Advances, are based on complex modeling and analyses of precipitation and surface temperature data, among other observations. The results are part of a new body of research examining the influence of land temperatures on weather patterns, and this is the first study of a winter season, Xue said.
Large mountains and plateaus generate waves in the jet stream that are thousands of miles long — "so long that we also call them planetary waves," Huber said. An increase or drop in temperature so high up above sea level adds or subtracts from the atmospheric disturbance that already exists due to the elevation.
RELATED STORIES"You can imagine the waves in the jet are kind of like a motorcycle rider going off a jump," Huber said. "How far and how high they jump depends on how fast they are going and how big a ramp they are going over."
Huber agreed that the results could help to better prepare for weather hazards. "This study shows that accurate predictions of weather events in the U.S. West are very sensitive to tiny changes very far 'upstream' and these upstream features are identifiable and traceable," he said.
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