The facts are brutal — somebody (and likely a couple of somebodies) coaching in the SEC won’t be there in 2027.
Some coaches are upwardly mobile and some coaches might just be getting run out of town.
So here’s a rundown as the season opens on which coaches might be on the move before another season rolls around — and which are pretty good bets to be staying put.
First-Year Safety
First things first — it’s not literally impossible for a first-year head coach to be fired. But absent some sort of non-football related misconduct, it’s not going to happen. So here’s a rundown of the new coaches who are the safest of bets to return in 2027: Will Stein at Kentucky, Alex Golesh at Auburn, Jon Sumrall at Florida, and Ryan Silverfield at Arkansas.
Two other coaches are marginally higher risks, just because they enter jobs with (much) higher expectations and one of them was just sued by the SEC before he coached a game at his new school. Yes, Pete Golding at Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin at LSU are the 2 coaches who would seem most likely to be swept aside by some insane flight of circumstances that sends them on before 2027. But it’s safe to say that virtually nothing normal that could happen at either school would be the issue.
As Safe As Possible
There’s another tier of veteran coaches who have earned enough goodwill at their current schools that nothing short of scandal (or a unilateral decision to leave) would move them. Kirby Smart is the obvious standout here. He’s 117-21 at Georgia, won 2 national titles, and has more than enough banked security to survive even a shockingly bad season.
After a CFP run in 2025, Mike Elko is probably in similar shape at Texas A&M heading into his third season at the school. Two coaches who would be unlikely to alienate their current school but might be intrigued by another job offer are Clark Lea at Vanderbilt and Eli Drinkwitz at Missouri. Seventeen wins over the last 2 seasons for Lea has him headed for a statute outside the stadium. Drink is 46-29 at Mizzou and annually has the Tigers competitive, if not exceptionally flashy.
Safe-ish Ground
There’s another group of 4 coaches who have open enough situations that they could blow up and take another job with a big season (perhaps even in the NFL) or could be in serious jeopardy of being out of jobs with poor seasons. They’re all still more likely than not to be back in 2027, but if somebody from this list wasn’t, it wouldn’t exactly be shocking.
Steve Sarkisian is probably in the best shape of the bunch. Texas underachieved in 2025, but won 25 games over the previous 2 seasons and Sark has the Longhorns back in the discussion for the CFP on an annual basis. He is probably more likely to get NFL fever than to lose his job.
Despite appearances to the contrary, Kalen DeBoer isn’t in bad shape at Alabama. Sure, 20-8 in 2 seasons won’t get the Tide faithful fired up, but Alabama has around $67 million reasons to be happy with its head coach.
Two guys who are in slightly more iffy shape are Josh Heupel at Tennessee and Brent Venables at Oklahoma. Venables is probably in a better situation because he took Oklahoma to the CFP last year, but if he had a third losing season in 5 years, tempers might get short in Norman. Heupel looked to be in good shape heading into 2025, but an 8-win season suggests that he might have peaked in his time in Knoxville. Nobody’s exactly picking his successor, but a second-straight rough season would start some grumbling from Vol Nation.
Prediction Markets College Football Playoff Qualifiers 2026 Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Notre Dame 83% Ohio St. 77% Georgia 76% Oregon 68% Texas 63% LSU 58% Texas A&M 40% Ole Miss 40% Alabama 37% Clemson 12% PredictNot So Great
The 2 coaches who stand out as most likely to be elsewhere in a season are Jeff Lebby at Mississippi State and Shane Beamer at South Carolina.
It’s just the third season for Lebby, but a 7-18 mark so far followed by another season of being the dregs of the conference might start State from looking enviously at its rivals in Oxford who made the CFP and are an SEC contender again. If the seat under Lebby isn’t hot, it will be after another bowl-less season.
Beamer is 33-30 at South Carolina. That’s quite a drop from the glory days of Lou Holtz and Steve Spurrier. Given the talent on Carolina’s roster, it’s surprising that 5 seasons haven’t netted a year better than 9-4. But another losing season could be curtains for Beamer.
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SEC Coaching Hot Seat Guide: Who could be gone by 2027? Saturday Down South.
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