Rival teams are always trying to beat each other, but one thing that bands them together is pride in the strength of their conference. For a 2026 preseason ranking of the 13 FCS conferences, we called on the TRACR projection model.
There’s a different feeling in FCS football this season without North Dakota State looming over the rest of the subdivision, but how does it matter with strength of conferences?
Maybe not at the top as the Missouri Valley is still probably the strongest even with the Bison, 10-time national champions from 2011 to ’24, now in the FBS.
For a 1-to-13 preseason ranking of FCS conferences, we called on data science and the AI projection model TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Competition and Roster), which considers how good a team is relative to the strength of its opponent. The accumulation provides an offensive rating and a defensive rating per 10 drives in a game, and the difference between them gives an overall team rating.
Note below the overall TRACR next to the conference name is the average of its membership – whether positive or negative per 10 drives – but the team analysis mostly reflects a team’s overall TRACR ranking among the 128 in the FCS. TRACR will update throughout the season.
1. Missouri Valley (Average TRACR: +7.17)
2026 MVFC Preview
Sixteen FCS teams have a TRACR of at least +10, and five of them reside in the MVFC, led by South Dakota State’s +18.95 that makes it second-ranked in overall TRACR. The other four are Illinois State (9th overall), North Dakota (10th), South Dakota (12th), Youngstown State (16th), and, like the Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll, Southern Illinois (23rd) is among the top 25 of TRACR.
2. Big Sky (+5.72)
2026 Big Sky Preview
The Big Sky is poised to challenge for the No. 1 conference ranking as Montana State pursues back-to-back national championships, but note the league needs its other playoff candidates behind the Bobcats (1st TRACR), Montana (3rd) and UC Davis (8th) to sort themselves out. Notably, the model believes in Idaho (18th) rebounding from a 4-8 season. Also, the gap from Montana State’s +26.44 TRACR to No. 2 SDSU is +7.49, which is way larger than the second-biggest gap between any two FCS teams (+1.32).
MVFC vs. Big Sky Head-to-Head
Win totals in head-to-head matchups since 2017 (the start of the two conferences’ regular-season Challenge series):
Regular Season (counted in the Challenge Series) – MVFC 34, Big Sky 19 Postseason (not counted in the Challenge Series) – MVFC 22, Big Sky 143. United Athletic (+4.76)
2026 UAC Preview
The projection model loves Tarleton (5th), and Austin Peay (20th) has a talented roster, but don’t overlook Abilene Christian (30th), which has swept those two programs the last two seasons. The UAC’s depth reflects in Eastern Kentucky, which is 55th even with a playoff appearance two years ago and the second most in FCS history.
4. Ivy League (+4.59)
2026 Ivy Preview
The Ancient Eight gained two bids (Yale and Harvard) in its first season of playoff eligibility. Led by those defending co-champs – Yale is 14th and Harvard 17th – six league members are in the top 50 of TRACR, and all eight are in the top 70. The last league in college football to kick off its season (Sept. 19) plays a shorter, 10-game regular season.
5. CAA Football (+3.82)
2026 CAA Football Preview
The much-maligned CAA, which has lost Richmond, Villanova and William & Mary to the Patriot League in the last two seasons, may now be underrated when people discuss FCS conferences. TRACR says so, with four teams in the top 25 – defending champ Rhode Island (7th), Monmouth (11th), New Hampshire (24th) and Stony Brook (25th) – and seven in the top 35.
6. Patriot League (+3.76)
2026 Patriot League Preview
Fittingly, the smallest difference in TRACR among FCS conferences is between the CAA and the PL – a mere 0.06. Lehigh (6th) had an unbeaten regular season last year, losing only to eventual national semifinalist Villanova (4th). Six of the new-era 10 PL programs have had playoff appearances since 2022.
7. Southern (+2.23)
2026 SoCon Preview
Talk about a wide-open title race: TRACR gives the highest ranking to Western Carolina (13th), while two-time defending champ Mercer (22nd) was the pick in the SoCon’s preseason poll and newcomer Tennessee Tech (26th) was No. 14 and highest in the Stats Perform preseason poll. Plus, ETSU (27th) was one spot behind TTU in TRACR.
8. MEAC (-1.00)
2026 MEAC Preview
Five of the six teams are tightly bunched in TRACR, ranging from two-time defending champ South Carolina State (52nd) to Howard (69th), but there’s a considerable drop-off to Norfolk State (109th), which didn’t have a Division I win last season.
9. Southland (-1.16)
2026 Conference Preview
This ranking is bound to go up once the schedule gets going. The top end of the Southland is solid with defending champ Stephen F. Austin (16th), Southeastern Louisiana (32nd), Lamar (35th) and UIW (41st) – and all ranked higher than any MEAC team – but the bottom tier, including three below 100, is dragging down the overall TRACR average.
10. Ohio Valley (-2.83)
2026 OVC Preview
UT Martin (51st) won at least a share of four straight conference titles from 2021-24 and is the team to beat this season, joined in the top 60 of TRACR by Gardner-Webb (56th) and Lindenwood (60th). But four of the eight teams are 90th or lower.
11. NEC Football (-6.65)
2026 NEC Football Preview
Factoring in some program defections, the NEC was stronger last decade than this one, but Central Connecticut State (57th) troubled Rhode Island in each of the last two playoffs and the conference has three FBS wins this decade, including by Duquesne (79th) and LIU (84th).
12. SWAC (-8.10)
2026 SWAC Preview
Similar to the Southland, the 12-member SWAC’s TRACR is below expectations, but the bottom teams – nine are 100th or below – are offsetting the impressive trio of Jackson State (19th), Alabama State (43rd) and defending champion Prairie View A&M (66th).
13. Pioneer League (-8.35)
2026 Pioneer League Preview
Here’s another potentially wild race: St. Thomas (58th) has the highest TRACR with Presbyterian (74th) second, although San Diego (81st) is the slimmest of favorites in the league’s preseason poll over three-time defending champion Drake (75th). Dayton (86th) isn’t far behind in a non-scholarship league that also has four teams at 122th or below.
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