With the 2026 FCS football season fast approaching, we’re making predictions for the Big Sky Conference. Everybody inside and outside the loaded league is chasing Montana State.
The Big Sky has the best team in the FCS and may finally be the best conference as well.
Having chased and closed the gap on the Missouri Valley Football Conference, the Big Sky boasts defending national champion Montana State and two others in the top six of the Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll – Montana, a 2023 finalist and ’25 semifinalist, and UC Davis, which has reached the quarterfinals in the last two seasons.
The order behind the big three is very-much open as Big Sky football climbs to 13 programs: Southern Utah is back in the conference following a four-year departure, bringing Utah Tech along from the United Athletic Conference, but Sacramento State jumped to the FBS. Big Sky football also is increasing to a nine-game conference schedule.
Each team capsule below pits FCS senior editor Craig Haley’s predicted order up against the Opta projection model. The supercomputer, if you will, incorporates TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) and other factors while running thousands of simulations to determine an average number of wins and losses per team.
2026 Big Sky Football Predictions
1. Montana State Bobcats
2025 Record: 14-2, 8-0 (1st) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 1 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 1 (1) Opta Average Projected Wins: 10.7 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 12 at NevadaWith the high of eight Stats Perform FCS Preseason All-Americans, including running back Adam Jones, offensive lineman Titan Fleischman, all-purpose Taco Dowler, safety Caden Dowler and place-kicker Myles Sansted on the first team, the Bobcats are stacked for a potential national championship repeat. The Bobcats (national finalists in three of coach Brent Vigen’s first five seasons) could be favored to win all 12 of their regular-season game, including at FBS Nevada.
2. UC Davis Aggies
2025 Record: 9-4, 6-2 (3rd) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 6 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 8 (3) Opta Average Projected Wins: 8.9 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 26 vs. MontanaMinnesota transfer QB Jackson Kollock will spread the ball to 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Fisher and 1,000-yard receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr., among others. The Connor brothers – Porter (linebacker) and Rex (safety), and tight end Winston Williams – are standouts whose 2025 seasons were ended by injury in September. In the Big Sky’s unbalanced schedule, UCD doesn’t face three of the top five preseason teams (Montana State, Idaho State and Northern Arizona).
3. Montana Grizzlies
2025 Record: 13-2, 7-1 (2nd) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 2 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 3 (2) Opta Average Projected Wins: 8.8 (12 games) Circle the Date: Nov. 21 at Montana StateNew coach Bobby Kennedy oversaw the Grizzlies’ wide receivers in 2025 after spending nearly 35 years as an assistant at 11 different FBS schools. Keali’I Ah Yat’s 4,070 passing yards were the most in the FCS last season. That’s also Yohance Humphrey’s school-record rushing record, and Eli Gillman (3,677) needs only 393 yards to match 4,070. Linebacker Peyton Wing anchors the defense for a program with 13 consecutive winning seasons.
4. Idaho State Bengals
2025 Record: 6-6, 5-3 (T-4th) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: RV Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 21 (5) Opta Average Projected Wins: 7.1 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 3 vs. Northern ArizonaAlthough the Bengals won the 1981 FCS championship, they haven’t been to the playoffs since 1983. A stacked offense with QB Jordan Cooke (3,052 passing yards), RB Dason Brooks (1,513 rushing yards in two seasons), LT Stryker Rashid and WR Chedon James gives coach Cody Hawkins’ team the hope of ending the drought.
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1 week ago Craig Haley5. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
2025 Record: 7-5, 4-4 (T-6th) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: 25 Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 28 (6) Opta Average Projected Wins: 6.4 (12 games) Circle the Date: Aug. 29 vs. Eastern WashingtonDual-threat QB Ty Pennington, one of eight Big Sky selections on the Walter Payton Award Preseason Watch List, has been one of the FCS’ more efficient QBs for two seasons (5,404 passing yards, 31 TDs to six interceptions), and he gets back TE Jeter Purdy (29 receptions, 415 yards). The ’Jacks allowed an average of 40 points in their five losses, although McNeese transfer Shoes Brinkley arrives off an 81-tackle season.
6. Idaho Vandals
2025 Record: 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 18 (4) Opta Average Projected Wins: 6.3 (12 games) Circle the Date: Nov. 14 vs. UC DavisThe Vandals plummeted last season after three consecutive playoff appearances. Any rebound would surely be led by Joshua Wood, one of the better rushing QBs in the FCS. Linebacker Cruz Hepburn is the team’s top returning tackler.
7. Eastern Washington Eagles
2025 Record: 5-7, 4-4 (T-6th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 69 (8) Opta Average Projected Wins: 4.1 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 31 vs. MontanaLast year’s defense improved on average by six points and nearly 40 yards per game from 2024, and the unit returns seven starters, including Isaiah Perez up front and Buck Buchanan Award preseason nominee Jaylon Jenkins in the secondary. Among returning FCS QBs, Nate Bell had the fifth-most rushing yards (663) last season.
8. Southern Utah Thunderbirds
2025 Record: 7-5, 6-2 UAC (3rd) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: RV Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 38 (7) Opta Average Projected Wins: 6.5 (12 games) Circle the Date: Aug. 29 at MontanaSUU, which won Big Sky titles in 2015 and ’17, has been knocking at the door of the playoffs for two seasons (finishing last season with six straight wins). The strong rushing attack could rely on some transfers (Floyd Chalk and Isaiah Hemmings), and QB Will Burns is terrific on the ground as well.
9. Cal Poly Mustangs
2025 Record: 4-8,2-6 (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 42 (7) Opta Average Projected Wins: 5.7 (12 games) Circle the Date: Aug. 28 vs. IdahoThe aptly named Tim Skipper was 3-6 as UCLA’s interim coach last season and 7-7 previously at Fresno State. Linebackers Mikey D’Amato (11.4) and Kenny Olson (9.8) led the Big Sky in tackles per game and were both in the national top 10. Returnees Demarcus Davis and Bo Kelly are in the QB mix.
10. Weber State Wildcats
2025 Record: 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 72 (9) Opta Average Projected Wins: 4.5 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 5 at Southern UtahNew coach Eric Kjar arrived from the Utah high school ranks, having gone 181-39 with seven state titles. There are many other newcomers as well – in fact, nearly 75 players. They include transfer QB Devin Brown, but there’s also DB Trevian Tribble (97 tackles last three seasons) among the returnees.
11. Northern Colorado Bears
2025 Record: 4-8, 2-6 (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 93 (11) Opta Average Projected Wins: 2.4 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 26 vs. Utah TechAfter the Bears quietly posted their highest win total since 2016, they return Jack Ziebell (OL), Ezra Ekuban (DL), Mathias Price (RB) and All-America long snapper Maddox Broughton. Their additions include former Indiana State QB Keegan Patterson.
12. Portland State Vikings
2025 Record: 1-11, 1-7 (12th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 106 (12) Opta Average Projected Wins: 1.7 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 10 vs. Utah TechAt Division II Central Washington, new Vikings’ coach Chris Fisk won three conference titles and had five games against Big Sky teams. Seven offensive starters return, including RB Deion Thompson and plenty of receivers, led by Terence Loville and Cru Newman. Linebacker Jaxton Helmstetler is the only returning starter on defense.
13. Utah Tech Trailblazers
2025 Record: 2-10, 1-7 UAC (T-8th) Preseason TRACR Rank: 85 (11) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.0 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 3 vs. Southern UtahGulp! The Big Sky entrance comes against Montana State (Aug. 29) and Montana (Sept. 12). Still, the lineup has experience, including QB Bronson Barben, leading rusher Ace Chatman and four of last year’s top-six tacklers (DBs Brevin Czosnyka and River Moore, LB Daylen Moore and DL Fasitootai Sagapolu).
Top photo, from left, via Montana Athletics, UC Davis Athletics and the Associated Press. For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
Big Sky Football Predictions: Montana State Is the Champ, but Griz, UC Davis Also Elite Opta Analyst.
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