With the 2026 FCS football season fast approaching, we’re making predictions for NEC Football. The title race could come down to another exciting conclusion.
NEC Football coaches have long talked about the closeness of games in their conference, and last season, they had the data to prove it.
The NEC featured the FCS’ lowest average margin of victory in conference games at under 13.4 points, with conference champion Central Connecticut State winning a one-possession game four times. Even better, four teams were alive for the conference title heading into the final day of the regular season.
CCSU and Duquesne are again the teams to beat in the conference title race. New Haven has joined the conference schedule, but Saint Francis departed in a move back to Division III, so the conference standings remain at eight teams. Chicago State, which joined the NEC last year, is playing an inaugural football season with an independent schedule, then is expected to join the NEC schedule next year.
Each team capsule below pits FCS senior editor Craig Haley’s predicted order up against the Opta projection model. The supercomputer, if you will, incorporates TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) and other factors while running thousands of simulations to determine an average number of wins and losses per team.
2026 NEC Football Predictions
1. Duquesne Dukes
2025 Record: 7-5, 5-2 (2nd) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 79 (2) Opta Average Projected Wins: 5.1 (11 games) Circle the Date: Nov. 21 vs. Central Connecticut StateTransfer quarterbacks have long starred for the Dukes, and this year it should be the well-traveled Carson Camp, most recently at Southeastern Louisiana. Walter Payton Award preseason nominee Ness Davis (927 rushing yards) is the first offensive option, but the Dukes also have the NEC’s two most-recent offensive rookies of the year in running back Shawn Solomon Jr. and wide receiver Ryan Petras.
2. Central Connecticut State Blue Devils
2025 Record: 8-5, 6-1 (1st) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 57 (1) Opta Average Projected Wins: 5.8 (11 games) Circle the Date: Nov. 21 at DuquesneCCSU was competitive against Rhode Island in two straight FCS playoff appearances and faces defending national champion Montana State on Sept. 19. Coach Adam Lechtenberg’s squad will get the ball in the hands of WRs Donovan Wadley (2023 NEC Offensive Player of the Year at Merrimack) and Michael Trovarelli, while cornerback Chris Jean (13 career takeaways) is adept at getting the ball out of opponents’ hands. He’s on the Buck Buchanan Award Preseason Watch List.
3. LIU Sharks
2025 Record: 6-6,4-3 (T-3rd) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 84 (3) Opta Average Projected Wins: 4.8 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 19 vs. VillanovaThe Sharks, seeking their first-ever FCS playoff bid, have gone .500 or above in-conference in four straight seasons and posted the program’s first win over an FBS opponent (Eastern Michigan) last year. Dual-threat QB Ethan Greenwood beats opponents with both his arm and feet, while safety Trey Watkins and linebacker Rafael Fasolino return from the NEC’s No. 1-ranked defense.
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6 days ago Craig Haley4. Robert Morris Colonials
2025 Record: 3-9, 2-5 (7th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 112 (7) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.7 (12 games) Circle the Date: Nov. 7 vs. DuquesneA title contender in 2024, the Colonials seek to rebound after losing three times last season by four or fewer points. They’ve rebuilt the lineup with transfers, including QB Carson Haggard from Abilene Christian and defensive end Brandon Martin from Dayton. Their opener at Wagner on Aug. 29 is the earliest conference game in NEC history.
5. Mercyhurst Lakers
2025 Record: 5-7, 4-3 (T-3rd) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 108 (6) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 17 vs. Central Connecticut StateNew coach Thomas Sydeski spent the last two seasons as the Lakers’ offensive coordinator and QBs coach. He gets back two receivers with 40+ receptions a year ago, Dylan Evans and Evan Van Dyke, but eight of the team’s 12 games are on the road and three are against FBS opponents (New Mexico State, New Mexico and Western Kentucky).
6. Wagner Seahawks
2025 Record: 5-7, 4-3 (T-3rd) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 97 (4) Opta Average Projected Wins: 4.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Aug. 29 vs. Robert MorrisComing off its best season since 2016, Wagner has standouts at WR (Jeremiah Colclough) and across the D-line (Olanrewaju Adeyemi, Ethan Appolon and Logan Barnes). QB Jack Stevens appeared in nine games, but the Seahawks were the only FCS team to average under 100 passing yards per game (97.3).
7. Stonehill Skyhawks
2025 Record: 4-8, 3-4 (6th) Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 107 (5) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.9 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 31 vs. MercyhurstJack O’Donnell broke out with 1,875 passing yards and 16 TD passes, and four of last year’s top five pass catchers are back. The Tyler Bannon-led defense allowed only 38 points combined in last year’s wins, including just 10 to Maine in a road upset.
8. New Haven Chargers
2025 Record: 5-5, was not part of NEC standings Preseason TRACR Rank (Conference Rank): 116 (8) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.0 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 5 vs. StonehillNew Haven dropped the interim tag on coach Mark Powell after the Chargers’ encouraging debut season in the FCS. A.J. Duffy passed for 2,399 yards (four 300+ games) and 22 TDs, and DB Brodie Williams led the defense with 67 tackles and three interceptions. Like Mercyhurst, New Haven is not yet eligible for the FCS playoffs.
Top photo, from left, via CCSU, Duquesne and LIU Athletics. For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
NEC Football Predictions: CCSU, Duquesne the Teams to Beat; LIU Knocking at the Door Opta Analyst.
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