Who will win promotion to League One? Which clubs are likeliest to be relegated to the National League? We answer all the key questions with our League Two 2026-27 season predictions from the Opta supercomputer.
Some familiar names are back in League Two.
The epic last-day clash in the National League between York City and Rochdale last season ended as dramatically as one could have hoped. With both teams playing for the one automatic promotion spot, Rochdale took the lead in stoppage time, with their fans and players going ballistic. Then minutes later, York equalised, with their fans and players also going ballistic as a draw was enough for them.
The Minstermen secured their place back in the EFL for the first time since the 2015-16 season, but things have taken a bit of a turn since, with manager Stuart Maynard surprisingly leaving the club. That shouldn’t dampen York fans’ enthusiasm too much as they prepare to embark on a League Two campaign for the first time in over a decade.
Rochdale were left heartbroken, but then they won the play-offs and had a lovely day out at Wembley, so it ultimately had a happy ending three years after being relegated from League Two.
The season begins on Saturday with two early games. Rochdale travel to Newport County, while the other 12.30 (BST) kick-off sees Oldham Athletic host a team who didn’t particularly want to be back in League Two this season, Port Vale. All other teams get under way at 15:00.
What does the Opta supercomputer think will happen in England’s fourth tier this season, though?
We thought League One looked like it might be tightly contested this season, but League Two has been even harder to separate for the supercomputer. Across 10,000 simulations, no team earned automatic promotion more than 31% of the time, while each team were promoted at least 68 times. Looking the other way, each team were also relegated at least 60 times in the 10,000 sims.
EFL OPTA SUPERCOMPUTER PREDICTIONS 2026-27
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8 hours ago Matt FurnissIt is worth remembering that these projections reflect only what the Opta supercomputer knows today. In effect, if every game in League Two was played today, this is how it sees the league finishing. Of course, these projections will change thousands of times throughout the season, based on real-life data powering the seasonal simulations.
Still, for now, they can at least offer a useful indication of what each club can realistically target.
Most other pre-season predictions are based almost entirely on opinion; see this as a projection without opinion and simply powered by data.
Who Will Be Promoted From League Two?
Grimsby Town’s 2025-26 season will live long in the memory, but largely because of their elimination of Manchester United in the EFL Cup second round. They reached the play-offs in the league but were beaten 4-3 on aggregate in the semi-finals by Salford City, as part-owner Gary Neville got a little bit of revenge for that penalty shootout success against his beloved United.
David Artell has done a superb job in Cleethorpes, though, and the Opta supercomputer thinks his team have what it takes to go up this season. They lost star striker Jaze Kabia to Leyton Orient but did at least confirm the permanent re-signing of veteran forward Mo Faal on loan from Wrexham to help find goals in the fourth tier. Port Vale were able to secure automatic promotion back up to League One in 30.1% of sims, winning the title in 11.9%, more than Grimsby (11.6%).
Barnet might be surprise front-runners to some, but Dean Brennan got the Bees flying towards the end of last season. Barnet finished just outside the play-offs but won seven of their last eight games (D1), including each of their last five.
The goals of Paul Mullin from Wrexham, they are only given a 21.3% chance of automatic promotion. Northampton finished bottom of League One last season and have a 16.9% chance of going back up via the top three.
Salford City were beaten comfortably in the play-off final by Notts County, and that 3-0 loss was the end for boss Karl Robinson. Peter Cklamovski is in the hot seat now, a former assistant to Ange Postecoglou in Australia and Japan.
As ever, Salford have made big moves in the transfer market to try to finally reach the third tier, with Tom Ince and
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