Donald Trump has denied reports that the US is running low on critical weapons systems as a result of the war with Iran – but nations around the world are struggling to protect their skies as air defence interceptor stocks run down.
The US military has largely exhausted stockpiles of advanced long-range munitions such as the ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles, The New York Times reported on Sunday, citing senior US officials.
Stocks of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defence interceptors have been reduced by up to 80 per cent, CNN reported this week. Military commanders told the US network that supplies were “dangerously low”.
The Pentagon has also burned through two thirds of Patriot air defence missiles, according to analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The think tank described Operation Epic Fury – the military campaign against Iran – as Washington’s “most munitions-intensive military campaign in decades.”
It added: “The conflict has consumed thousands of advanced offensive and defensive missiles, placing unprecedented strain on inventories of critical systems such as Patriot interceptors, THAAD interceptors, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and other high-end precision munitions.
“Questions about the depth of US stockpiles, production capacity, and military readiness have become central to national security planning.”
Trump and his top officials have fiercely denied shortages. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the military had “more than enough firepower to carry out any operation the President orders at any time and place”. Trump has threatened to jail anyone leaking information about weapons.
But the White House is pressing defence companies to rapidly scale up production of a range of critical systems including Patriot and THAAD interceptors.
An internal memo from deputy defence secretary Steve Feinberg, first reported by The Washington Post and confirmed to be legitimate by the Pentagon, called on industry chiefs to “drive significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules and/or increased production for critical capabilities”, warning that “years-long development cycles are not acceptable”.
The current timelines to replace Patriot and THAAD munitions are more than four years, according to CSIS.
Shortages are being felt far beyond the US, which supplies Patriot systems and munitions to many of its allies.
Gulf countries have reportedly expended around 800 Patriot interceptors to defend against Iranian missile strikes in recent months, which they are struggling to replace.
Ukraine is searching desperately for air defence ammunition that allies are struggling to supply. The Pentagon has failed to fulfil pre-existing Patriot orders to European countries such as Switzerland, which is now exploring alternatives.
An Iranian missile that fell into an agricultural land in Najha near Syrian capital Damascus after being intercepted by Israeli air defence systems in June (Photo: Bakr Alkasem/AFP)Even before the Iran war, demand for Patriot missiles, which can be used against aircraft and cruise and ballistic missiles, was already outstripping supply.
Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow in Airpower and Technology at defence think-tank Rusi, said: “Public figures for global production of Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles generally sit between 600 and 700 per year. There was a greater demand than that from global Patriot users including particularly Ukraine, Saudi Arabia and the UAE prior to Operation Epic Fury.”
Other types of air defence systems cannot easily plug the gaps. “Larger, more capable interceptors such as THAAD and SM-6/SM-3 were produced in far smaller numbers than PAC-3 MSE [an interceptor built for the Patriot system] and have also been used in very large numbers relative to available stocks since the first large Israeli-Iranian exchanges in 2024.”
European missile stockpiles have also been depleted since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with allies donating air defences to Kyiv. Without a rapid increase in production, the shortages may leave European skies exposed.
Lami Kim, a defence expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) wrote that stockpiles have been “markedly reduced”.
Some western and central European countries – including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain – transferred US-supplied Patriot systems to Ukraine following the outbreak of war. This shortage has been exacerbated by many eastern European countries seeking to phase out legacy Soviet-era systems, Kim added.
“Against this backdrop, air and missile defence was among the seven critical capability areas identified as requiring urgent action to close existing gaps in the 2025 White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030,” she wrote, describing the shortfall in European medium and long-range ballistic missile defence as “acute”.
“Europe has relied mainly on the US-made Patriot system. Germany has purchased the Arrow 3 long-range air-defence system, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries with Boeing as a co-developer and co-producer, but this represents only a small fraction of the air and missile defence capacity Europe needs.”
Even when the supply of interceptors increases, Europe may not be prioritised for buying them. “Under such conditions, the US is likely to prioritise replenishing its own stocks before fulfilling external demand,” Kim said. “When exports do resume, its Gulf partners may take precedence. Europe could be near the end of the queue.”
Iranian missiles flying over the Persian Gulf in June (Photo: WANA/Pool via Reuters)In Ukraine, shortages are being felt daily, with Russia exploiting gaps in air defences with devastating barrages. Matthew Arnold, director of LSE Ideas’ Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Programme, recently told The i Paper: “In Kyiv, there just haven’t been the Patriots to respond,” with Russia “maximising the ballistics because they know Ukraine is in a miserable spot right now”.
Ukrainian air defence commanders told The New York Times that Ukrainian forces had adapted their tactics to try to preserve interceptor missiles, switching units to manual mode so they fire one missile at a time, rather than the standard two or three.
To plug the gap, Ukraine is set to be the first country to receive two of the next-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG air defence systems in October. Trump has said he will grant Ukraine a licence to produce its own Patriot missiles, but appeared to backtrack this month.
Even if a licence is granted, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said domestic Patriot production could take years to deliver the vital munitions. Domestic company Fire Point is aiming to roll out its own anti-ballistic system, but this too could involve a timeline of years.
Russian analysts see a window of opportunity emerging. “The less precision-guided weaponry the US has, the less will reach Ukraine,” said military blogger Alexander Kots.
Europe is scrambling to expand its own defence industries, to shore up sovereign supply chains of critical military capabilities. In this year’s Defence Investment Plan, the UK committed £790m to “enhance protection of the UK homeland and overseas bases from air, drone and missile threats over the next four years”.
But for now, air and missile defence remains a serious concern for militaries around the world – whatever Trump might say.
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