In any other walk of life, Gianni Infantino would be gone by now. Resignation tendered. Emotional speech on the soapbox preached and off into the sunset, until the next scandal takes hold and he can plan a return to the public eye.
Football governance doesn’t work like that. Infantino is yet to even contest an election, despite serving two further terms as Fifa president after replacing Sepp Blatter in 2016.
Not willing to go of his own accord, many believed the end was still nigh for the disgraced chief. After receiving the backing of senior executives in a meeting in Morocco on Wednesday, an apologetic Infantino lives to fight another day, despite Uefa, the most powerful confederation in world football, remaining unrelenting in pursuit of his head.
The English FA, the forefathers of the modern game, has withdrawn its support. Other nations have followed suit. To European eyes, even if he does not go voluntarily, Infantino’s reprieve is just a stay of execution.
Yet, the worldview is not quite so clearcut. And it is why Infantino’s hopes of at least clinging on until the election in March are rosier than they appear.
How the numbers add up
Without the scruples to actually resign, Infantino needs to be pushed. The Fifa Council could try to force the 56-year-old’s hand through another emergency meeting – which could be called if 19 of the 37 council members call for one.
Uefa has nine members, a long way short. Closely behind are the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), with seven members. With Europe and Concacaf the most vociferous Infantino opponents, and Africa and Conmebol (South America) the loyalists of the piece, Asia is the swing continent in any potential vote of no confidence or even at the next election.
On the whole, the AFC has been a staunch Infantino supporter. The smaller nations without the revenues of its European counterparts have relied heavily on Fifa money and have not seen any need to call for change.
Infantino’s resignation is far from certain (Photo: Getty)Saudi Arabia remains the most powerful Asian nation from a political point of view, and being the host of the 2034 World Cup, they too see no need to bring about any upheaval. They have been quiet publicly, but sources insisted that, in private, they still back Infantino.
There are plenty of Asian nations who have denounced Infantino already. But there are more willing to go on record in their support of the under-pressure supremo than those from any other part of the world.
As one advisor in the region put it, why should the Europeans be deemed the arbiters of moral truth, when the English FA backed Infantino to stay for another term only last month?
Jordan FA president Prince Ali bin Hussein has accused Infantino of using “blackmail” to secure political support, which changes things somewhat. The rest of the confederation, however, will not all offer blanket condemnation like the Europeans.
The overall feeling is that while Infantino is far from perfect, he at least gives the rest of the world more of a say in comparison to his predecessors. A Europe-centric breakaway tournament sounds great on paper, for us. Not for Asia.
Could Uefa really boycott?
One question that has remained unanswered in all the Uefa communications from the past week is whether the threat of a World Cup boycott still stands, or was that just to force the withdrawal of the controversial investment plan?
A Uefa statement attempted to provide clarity on Thursday.
“Uefa’s associations were very clear about the conditions attached to the non-participation in Fifa competitions,” the statement read.
“First, the proposals to sell off the major competitions had to be withdrawn, and secondly, assurances have to be made that such attempts to disfigure the game in this way will never be made again.
“These conditions have not been met. In addition, Uefa made it abundantly clear in its statement on Saturday that it has lost confidence in Gianni Infantino’s presidency. That position holds.”
While it implies that a boycott would still be the case, Uefa needs to be more explicit, rather than focusing on any potential re-emergence of Infantino’s financial proposals. Time is of the essence. Fifa are the masters at allowing the dust to settle and problems become quickly forgotten from the public discourse.
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Daniel Storey: Gianni Infantino is about to learn the harsh reality of friendship with Trump Transfers: Inside Newcastle’s £75m plans for life after Bruno GuimaraesOne source suggested that doubling down on the boycott is the “only way” to force Infantino out. A World Cup without Europe would not be worth putting on. Europe could also showcase its own World Cup, with other breakaway nations. Neither are as good as the real thing, and in reality, those at the top of the game are all too aware of this.
If Uefa is willing to follow through with its boycott threat, those nations on the fence around the world would join in support for revolution. Baltic countries withdrawing their backing matters little in the global game, with the assumption that all of Europe is out anyway.
If Infantino wants to play dirty, then Europe perhaps has to do the same.
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