But El-Sayed’s squeaker win was not what he or his allies were forecasting as recently as Tuesday morning. For weeks, most polling indicated Michiganders were strongly trending toward El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim Senator if he prevails in November over former Rep. Mike Rogers. Even still, this outcome was not something many foresaw as recently as last year. El-Sayed managed to captured the broad, bipartisan frustration that established leaders are not hearing voters’ concerns.
Even if he fell short of expectations, the podcasting populist still had the primary outcome he was counting on. El-Sayed has been planning this moment for a while. He ran for Governor in 2018, another wave year for Democrats, but lost his primary to the current Governor, Gretchen Whitmer.
El-Sayed, whose surprising rise prompted state senator Mallory McMorrow to suspend her campaign before voting began, is on the cusp of being the latest avatar for the brand of progressive and populist politics promoted by supporters like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Sen. Bernie Sanders. That instant credibility may boost El-Sayed nationally, but risks turning off voters in Michigan, which is precisely what Rep. Haley Stevens warned of during her unsuccessful primary against El-Sayed.
LOSER: Stevens
Stevens, a former campaign aide to Hillary Clinton and Obama, couldn’t translate her natural political instinct as an operative to convincing a statewide electorate that she deserved their votes. Sometimes, her comments seemed to wander. Her mind moved faster than her lips. And her critics—in not-so-subtly-gendered language—mocked her accent.
The frustrations with the status quo helped El-Sayed, for sure. But it also reflects the true sentiment of how Americans are feeling right now. According to Gallup polling, just 23% of Americans are satisfied with how things are going. With that level of angst, it’s little wonder that Michiganders opted to go with someone calling for remaking the whole system over an incrementalist and pragmatist who pitched herself as someone who can fix the system from the inside.
LOSER: AIPAC
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee became an unlikely flashpoint in Michigan. The pro-Israel group has been spending big for several cycles to support allies of Israel and counter increasingly anti-Israel sentiments in the Democratic Party. El-Sayed’s views there left little doubt which side AIPAC would be supporting.
While the group is nominally focused on promoting the relationship between the United States and Israel, its advertising focus seldom mentions Israel. In fact, a New York Times analysis of AIPAC’s ads since April of 2022 found 109 ads. Just six mention Israel.
On the eve of Tuesday’s primary, CAIR began a robocall effort that reached more than 13,000 Muslim Michigan households, where roughly 29,000 mail-in ballot recipients are registered. Another 19,000 low-propensity Muslim voters got calls.
LOSERS: Establishment Democrats
Stevens was the undisputed choice of the Democratic Establishment. She was a swing state Democrat who previously won on the same ballot as Trump. She had been through the vetting, could raise money, and seemed a practical choice to hold the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
Senate Republicans have been rightly nervous about holding their narrow majority. El-Sayed’s nomination takes away some of that stress. While Michigan is expected to be a close race, Republicans were a lot more eager to run against El-Sayed than Stevens. Republicans are ready with plenty of fodder from El-Sayed’s past comments; his unrelenting criticism of Israel will be wielded to sway Michigan’s Jewish voters to either back Rogers or sit the race out.
LOSER: Whitmer
So it left a lot of watchers surprised when, on July 24, Whitmer endorsed Stevens. It was a move that another Michigan Democrat and oft-mentioned 2028 contender, Sen. Elissa Slotkin, did not make. Whitmer quickly became one of Stevens’ better surrogates, making the argument in a clearer way than the candidate herself did.
As the folks in Whitmer’s lane look around, they may be questioning if there is a lane for their likes heading into 2028, or if a principled stand for pragmatism is truly a non-starter.
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