Trump’s deal collapsed in disgrace. Now he’s recklessly backing another war ...Middle East

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President Donald Trump said last week the Iranian regime was “cuckoo”. This week, he’s outdoing them in his own efforts to emulate a Swiss clock.

Trump’s careless talk on Iran is now imperilling not one, but two ceasefires. He has already claimed the truce between the US and Iran that began on 8 April is now “over”, rhetorically tearing up last month’s 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the two countries that was supposed to lay the groundwork for a full-scale peace deal.

Now, he’s taken action that is simultaneously imperilling a separate, four-year truce between Saudi Arabia and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Late last week Trump reportedly gave Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman his blessing for the most serious military assault by the Saudis on Houthi positions since 2022.

On Monday, Saudi forces struck the main airport in Sanaa, as a sanctioned Iranian airline linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was flying Houthi leaders back from the funeral of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The jet safely diverted the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.

The Saudi attack sparked reprisals from Houthi forces, who fired missiles at Abha airport in the Kingdom’s southwest. The outbreak of hostilities now threatens to reignite broader conflict between Riyadh and the Houthis that could further inflame regional instability.

Trump fanned the flames of that instability on Monday, with an inflammatory posting on social media in which he engaged in threats that run entirely counter to his own government’s official policies. For months, the Americans have insisted that absolutely nobody – not the Iranians, not the Omanis, nor anyone else – will be permitted to charge any vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz a penny in tolls or service fees.

An explosion at the Sanaa International Airport compound during what the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels said were Saudi airstrikes on the Yemeni capital on Monday (Photo: Screenshot from video broadcast by Al-Masirah TV, a Houthi-controlled news channel) (Photo: Al-Masirah TV via AP)

But according to the President, the White House now intends to charge 20 per cent fees on the value of cargo aboard any vessel sailing through the strategic waterway to reimburse the United States “for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World”.

The President claimed the new service fees “will begin immediately” and ordered that America now be known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”. How he intends to achieve either objective is unclear. The International Maritime Organisation, a United Nations agency, said “there is no legal basis…to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait”, and one major tanker company executive dismissed the President’s plan as “unrealistic”.

The Iranians, however, were cock-a-hoop over Trump’s proposal, given that they have also threatened to charge per-vessel tolls and service fees once the 60-day clock embedded within the MoU expires. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, hailed Trump’s newfound belief in tolling. “POTUS is absolutely right”, Araghchi wrote on X. “Whoever provides safe and secure passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service…20 per cent is of course too much. We will be fair”, he said, further provoking America’s leader.

Meanwhile, US forces struck more Iranian targets on Monday night in continuing hostilities that threaten to completely undermine the peace process. The Iranians reportedly struck two Emirati tankers off Oman’s coastline as they were transiting the Strait. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others were injured.

The risk of the conflict fully reigniting grows by the hour, and the threat to oil and fertiliser supplies remains undiminished. The longer the Strait remains closed to most tankers, the higher global energy prices are expected to rise. Anticipating the possibility of an extended conflict, Dubai plans to create a new port on the UAE’s east coast that would help minimise reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, but it will take several years to be operational.

Three Corsair unmanned surface vessels fired by the US military, closing in on Bandar Abbas Naval Base, Iran on 12 July (Photo: US Central Command via AP)

Trump now faces the prospect of making policy towards Iran without the influence of Senator Lindsey Graham, a prominent Republican hawk who died on Saturday. His sudden departure removes from Trump’s inner circle a trusted foreign policy voice, who was often used as a sounding board by the President for some of his more visceral proposals and ideas.

Trump’s political misfortunes are also intensifying at home. On Monday, a judge nullified the President’s efforts to create a $1.776 billion (£1.3bn) “anti-weaponisation fund” that was expected to provide payouts to many of his supporters who claim they were unfairly targeted by the Department of Justice during Joe Biden’s presidency.

On Thursday night, Trump intends to make a primetime address to the nation. But instead of using it to explain his current plan for wrapping up the conflict in Iran and finalising a peace agreement with the regime, he will instead reportedly reveal what he claims is “new evidence” suggesting a foreign nation helped to rig the 2020 presidential election in Biden’s favour.

That will do nothing to satisfy growing anxiety over Trump’s capacity to cope with a crisis in the Persian Gulf of his own creation, nor hasten the day when the Strait of Hormuz is once again fully and freely open to tankers.

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