The current £26bn-a-year cost of PIP risks “carry[ing] on going up forevermore” unless the Government works “to address the problem”, disability minister Sir Stephen Timms told the BBC.
Figures from the Department for Work and Pensions, first reported by The Times, project that the number of children receiving disability living allowance (DLA) will rise to around 1.2 million by 2030.
Autism appears to be the biggest driver of the projected doubling of child disability benefit claims, with around one in every 29 children (3.41 per cent) in England now having an autism diagnosis.
Overall, there has been a sharp rise in neurodevelopmental conditions, including autism, ADHD, learning disabilities and mental health issues.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has repeatedly pointed to the rapid rise in mental health-related disability claims as the main catalyst around welfare spending.
Children increasingly need support for severe anxiety, depression, obsessive compulsive disorder, eating disorders and behaviour disorders.
The DLA review will put pressure on Andy Burnham to cut the size of the welfare bill who now seems certain to take over as prime minister after 322 Labour MPs nominated him.
The review, led by Sir Stephen Timms, was set up by Sir Keir Starmer in an attempt to reform the welfare system before it was blocked by Labour MPs last summer.
Sir Timms said this week that the current system is not fit for purpose because it does not adequately assess many modern conditions, particularly concerning mental health.
Data shows 300,000 children received a disability living allowance (DLA) in 2009. That number grew to 465,000 by 2019-20 and ballooned to 760,000 in 2024-25.
2018 general practitioner (GP) records showed autism prevalence in England was below 1 per cent.
Globally, autism diagnoses have risen steeply
Britain appears to be following the same path as Australia, where autism became the biggest driver in disability category spending within the country’s National Disability Insurance Scheme.
The rapid growth prompted the Australian government to commission an independent review which led to tightening of eligibility for some claimants and increased investment in early-intervention services.
Policymakers may look to Australia as a case study in managing rising demand while maintaining support for children with the greatest needs.
The UK and Australia are not alone. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the US recorded one of the clearest long-term increases in autism diagnosis.
In 2000, about one in 50 children in the US were identified with autism. By 2020, this had risen to one in 36. The most recent CDC surveillance found around one in 31 eight year-olds identified with autism.
Canada and Scandinavia, including Sweden, Denmark and Finland, all reported rising autism prevalence, while South Korea found unexpectedly high autism prevalence after actively screening children in schools, suggesting many had previously gone undiagnosed.
Because the rise in autism diagnoses is occurring across many high-income countries, it is less likely the increase is driven by one country’s welfare system alone.
Why autism diagnoses is on the rise
Finding the reason behind why autism diagnoses has risen so drastically is one one of the most studied things in child medicine.
Researchers believe better diagnoses is thought to be the largest factor. Many children who would not have received an autism diagnosis 20 or 30 years ago can now be identified with autism.
Wider screening, greater awareness among teachers, earlier developmental assessments, improved understanding of autism in girls and more specialist clinicians has driven the rise.
Is there a medical reason?
Scientists believe autism has strong biological and genetic origins. Data shows genetic factors account for roughly 60-90 per cent of the likelihood of developing autism.
Autism is not caused by a single “autism gene”; instead hundreds of genes each contribute a small amount of risk, with some rare genetic variants having larger effects.
Autism can develop through a combination of inherited genetic factors, spontaneous genetic changes before birth and environmental influences during pregnancy that interact with genetic susceptibility.
Are environmental factors involved?
Researchers are investigating several factors such as older parental age, extreme prematurity, certain rare genetic mutations and even pregnancy complications. These only explain a small proportion of cases – not the dramatic increase.
Importantly, extensive research has found no credible evidence that routine childhood vaccines cause autism.
Welfare reform a huge challenge for Andy Burnham
Timms’s review highlights an increasing need to modernise the UK’s health and education services.
Andy Burnham has committed to a plan to reduce welfare spending, but warned against “short-term crude cuts”.
He said: “It is actually going to do things that will reduce the benefits bill, moving towards a more preventative state that makes the right investments to support people into work.”
Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately, said Burnham “must be different from” Sir Keir Starmer by reducing the cost of welfare, according to The Times.
“Welfare savings are not optional,” she said. “We cannot afford the ever rising benefits bill. And taxpayers are calling time on a system they can see being abused.”
Joe Shalam, policy director at the Centre for Social Justice, said Burnham must “grasp the nettle” of welfare reform “for the sake of millions parked on the margins and of course the taxpayer footing the bill”.
He said: “We cannot afford to make the mistakes of the past.”
Children receiving DLA are automatically invited to apply for PIP when they cross the adult threshold, and are often more successful in their applications. More than three-quarters of claims for the benefit made by people who received DLA were approved, compared with half of all new claims.
The DWP said: “We are working to fix the welfare system so that it supports people who genuinely need it, while delivering fairness to the taxpayer – with reforms set to save £1.9bn by the end of 2030-31.
“We know there is a rising demand for child DLA, which is why we have trained additional case managers to deal with these claims effectively, fairly and to a high standard.
“The Government has also launched an independent review on how the health system delivers mental health, ADHD and autism services to help children and adults get the right support.
“We look forward to receiving the report’s final recommendations in due course.”
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