Ten years after Britain voted to leave the European Union, it has ousted the prime minister who tried to reset the relationship and repair some of the damage.
Sir Keir Starmer had been negotiating to regain some of the privileges the UK enjoyed as part of the world’s single largest market when he stepped down. Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester recently returned to Westminster, looks set to replace him.
Here in Brussels, EU officials and diplomats are sniggering behind closed doors, while wondering when their partner across the channel will finally get a grip.
It’s hardly the moment for a leadership crisis when the EU and the UK together face more daunting external challenges – not least the Trump presidency in the US that will once again test Nato cohesion at an upcoming summit in Turkey.
European countries are familiar with political turmoil, but even by their standards the pace of leadership change in the UK is baffling. And it matters to the EU, which invested heavily in Starmer’s reset and once again feels unsure of where the relationship is heading.
EU officials are scratching their heads, trying to work out what lies behind the revolving door of Britain’s prime ministers. “It’s Brexit,” a senior diplomat from one of the EU’s larger member states told The i Paper.
The diplomat suggested that Brexit unleashed political instability in the UK that Brits are still struggling to grapple with, and which may have affected Starmer’s future. Britain’s economy is about 6 per cent smaller than it would have been had the UK remained a part of the EU, according to analysis drawing on Bank of England data. “Outside the EU, Britain is just an island,” the diplomat added.
The correlation between the economic and political pitfalls of Brexit and Starmer’s fall isn’t established – but it is certainly suspected, though others say Brexit ultimately had little to do with his loss of support.
Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen during an UK-EU Summit at Lancaster House last year. Starmer had been negotiating to regain some of the privileges the UK enjoyed as part of the EU when he stepped down (Photo: Carl Court/AFP)“Brexit has created instability and fragmented politics, but that’s not why he had to go,” Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, said. Starmer had to leave because of “incompetence”, he suggested.
In the UK, Starmer’s downfall is largely attributed to the absence of a clear and convincing domestic agenda, U-turns on key policies and Labour’s electoral losses to Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform UK party.
But in EU circles, where charisma is seen as an overrated quality for politicians, Starmer was rather liked.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, said Starmer was seen as a “welcome breath of fresh air” after a stream of Conservative prime ministers wrecked the relationship. “He was seen as a grown-up centrist with a keen desire to reset ties,” Rahman told The i Paper.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, was among the first to acknowledge his contributions and to post a warm farewell message. “It can take many leaders years to grow into the statesman you became in just two years,” she said. “European and Ukrainian security is stronger because of you.”
She added: “Thank you, dear Keir.”
Starmer had been seen as a man with the mandate to forge stronger ties with the EU – and also as a steadfast security partner. He stood alongside Emmanuel Macron of France and assembled a coalition of more than 30 willing countries aimed at building an alternative security architecture for Ukraine, as US guarantees grew less reliable. He even agreed to deploy British troops on the ground once a peace deal was reached.
“Keir, thank you for all our co-operation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Starmer also backed European allies when Trump threatened to annex Greenland, and, along with Macron, set up a coalition of like-minded countries who wished to help secure the Strait of Hormuz once a deal between the US and Iran was struck.
Keir Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron developed a strong working relationship. Europe will wait to see how the new prime minister interacts with the continent (Photo: Isabel Infantes / AFP via Getty)However, frustrations in the UK and Brussels converged on one key aspect: Starmer didn’t act fast enough and didn’t make the most of the mandate he was given. When it came to security issues, “Starmer was liked and respected and clearly seen as an improvement,” Rahman said. “But there was some frustration with Starmer’s incrementalism on the reset.”
EU officials “did not understand why he was so cautious despite a majority that many leaders in the EU would kill for”, he added.
The senior diplomat was more sceptical about Burnham. “With Starmer, at least there was a chance, now we simply don’t know,” they said.
Burnham is yet to suggest whether he will invest significant political capital in an EU reset. The EU has postponed a second reset summit, scheduled for 22 July.
“We have been working very hard and in a very exciting mood to have our second summit,” EU Council president António Costa said on the day Starmer resigned. “My wish is that his successor could give continuity on this good path to reset our relationship.”
Rahman said Burnham may surprise Europe and more forcefully pursue a pro-EU agenda. “I think Burnham will go further; he is more genuinely pro-European,” Rahman said, adding that the MP for Makerfield would frame any reset in terms of what he could credibly offer voters in a 2029 manifesto. “He won’t revisit the red lines,” he said, “but that’s the direction of travel.”
Menon said it was too early to tell, but he suspected Burnham wouldn’t prioritise a reset. “My hunch is that Andy will place less emphasis on the reset than Starmer, partly because of his constituency,” he said. “He won’t hear lots of people talking about the EU.”
Either way, Britain’s confusion is seeping into arguably its most important relationship. Europe is watching to see how long Burnham will survive in Downing Street and even those in Brussels privately smirking would like to see British politics stabilise.
Prime ministers come and go. What worries EU officials is whether Britain can find one the country can live with, and who can actually make a reset stick.
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