The Bills are feeling the pressure of becoming another one of sports’ great also-rans. There is one team in the NFL that has won more games than the Bills over the last decade. Their .640 winning percentage and 105-59 record trails only the Chiefs since 2016. However, the Chiefs have five Super Bowl appearances and four wins in that span, and the Bills have none of either. Can a new leader at the helm and two new offensive weapons on the perimeter help get the Bills the title that has eluded them?
Points per game: 28.3 (4th)
Total yards per game: 376.3 (4th)
Plays per game: 63.6 (28th)
Dropbacks per game: 37.1 (23rd)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.23 (4th)
Designed rush attempts per game: 29.8 (2nd)
Rush EPA per play: 0.04 (2nd)
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Can Joe Brady get the Bills over the playoff hump?
Perhaps feeling the pressure to do something different to get over the hump, the team fired longtime head coach Sean McDermott in the offseason and turned the reins over to his offensive coordinator, Joe Brady. At 36 years old, Brady is now the youngest head coach in the NFL and will be thrown right into one of the most high-pressure jobs in the league. Josh Allen is now 30 years old (and a new father), and the Bills are feeling the heat to maximize their potential while their quarterback can still perform the athletic feats that have made him one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Can Brady be the young voice that gets them over the top?
Passing Game
QB: Josh Allen, Kyle AllenWR: DJ Moore, Keon ColemanWR: Khalil Shakir, Skyler BellWR: Joshua Palmer, Trent SherfieldTE: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes
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As with everything in the Bills’ offense, the passing game discussions begin and end with Josh Allen. The 2024 NFL MVP had another good season, completing 319-of-460 passes (69.3 percent) for 3,668 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also added another 579 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on the ground, becoming the franchise’s leader in rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns. Yet, despite that, he also threw for his fewest yards since 2019 and averaged a career-low 7.1 yards per target. In fact, a career-high 65 percent of his attempts traveled fewer than 10 yards downfield, so his career-high 69.3 percent completion rate was more because of how short Buffalo had to design its passing game. With Brady now calling plays for his own offense and not to fit the balanced style that McDermott favored, it makes sense that we would see the offense try to push the ball down the field more. However, a higher average depth of target will likely mean that the completion rate takes a hit, and the interception numbers could climb back up around 14-15. Still, that could be worth the tradeoff if we get back to a 4,000 passing yard and 30 passing touchdown season.
Of course, getting Allen weapons has also been a big conversation. Last season, the Bills didn’t have one wide receiver who surpassed 750 yards. Keon Coleman failed to take a step forward in his second season. Veteran Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer battled injuries all year, and Khalil Shakir was forced into a role as a YAC monster. So what did the Bills do in the offseason? They brought in Pete Carmichael, who spent the majority of his coaching career coaching one of the most productive passing attacks in NFL history with Drew Brees in New Orleans, and traded a second-round pick to acquire DJ Moore. Now, Moore only had 50 receptions for 682 yards and six touchdowns in 2025 with the Bears, but that was a team that was moving towards featuring young players like Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland. When Brady was the Panthers’ offensive coordinator in 2020, he led the first offense in franchise history with four different players who had over 1,000 scrimmage yards, including Moore, who led the team with 1,215. Moore won’t need to be that player in Buffalo, but he can still be an outside threat that can make defenses pay if they leave him in single coverage. That could still lead to 1,000 yards and eight or more touchdowns.
It’s still likely that Shakir will lead the Bills in catches and targets as the main option to move chains in the intermediate game. He was Buffalo’s leading receiver in each of the past two seasons, and last year led the team with 72 catches on 95 targets for 719 yards. That came on just 349 air yards (3.9 per target), which was 200 fewer than in 2024. Even if the Bills still plan to use Shakir in the short passing game, having a deep threat like Moore will mean that defenses can’t send all-out blitzes as often as they did last season, and Allen likely won’t have to dump off in the flats as much.
Another new playmaker who could help improve the Bills’ passing game is fourth-round rookie Skyler Bell. The UConn receiver had 1,282 receiving yards last season, which was second in the nation. He does share a skillset with Shakir since 835 of those yards came after the catch, which is an average of 8.2 yards after the catch, but Bell is more than just a YAC-focused slot receiver. He ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash (76th percentile) and had a 41-inch vertical leap (77th percentile) at the NFL Scouting Combine, which led to him posting a 9.71 relative athletic score [RAS] that ranked 111th out of 3,830 wide receivers over the past four decades. He has the suddenness to change direction quickly and create separation while also possessing the speed to make big plays deep. He could enter the season as the Bills’ third receiver, which may make for inconsistent week-to-week production but a few huge games.
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The rest of the Bills’ wide receiving corps is a question mark. Tyrell Shavers could have played a big role, but he tore his ACL in the Wild Card win over the Jaguars. Coleman is still around, and Joe Brady said that his being higher was the best thing to happen to Coleman, but he is likely still more of a red zone and jump ball option. Palmer is still on the team, but also still on the mend from myriad injuries and probably just veteran insurance at this point, while Sherfield is more of a special teams option.
In the tight end room, Dalton Kincaid remains a true mismatch but one who is unable to stay on the field. He played just 12 games in 2025 and continues to battle knee issues. The presence of Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes, who are strong blockers, will keep a ceiling on Kincaid’s snap count and volume. Still, he flashed big-time ability when healthy, and Carmichael oversaw offenses in New Orleans that got plenty of production out of athletic tight ends like Jimmy Graham. Could Kincaid still lead the Bills in touchdowns despite a modest role?
Running Game
RB: James Cook, Ty Johnson, Ray DavisOL (L-R): Dion Dawkins, Alec Anderson, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown
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The biggest change for the Bills’ running game will involve a name many casual fans don’t know, as Bills’ offensive line coach Aaron Kromer retired after the 2025 season. According to ESPN analytics, in 2025, the Bills’ offensive line had the best run block win rate in the NFL and the fourth-best pass block win rate. James Cook also won the rushing title with 1,621 rushing yards on 309 carries. Despite Cook not matching his 16 touchdowns from 2024, he posted 12 and had another great fantasy season.
Even without Kromer around, we could see another great fantasy season for Cook because of another part of his game that could be unlocked in Carmichael’s offense. When he was calling plays in New Orleans, Alvin Kamara was consistently one of the best receiving backs in football and was a key part of creating mismatches on third down. That could provide an avenue for Cook to continue putting up RB1 fantasy seasons, even if Joe Brady decides to throw the ball more often in 2026.
Behind Cook, Ty Johnson has been one of the more reliable third-down backs in the league for the last few seasons, and he should continue to mix in a few carries during each game in addition to his work in the passing game. Ray Davis will also serve as a valuable backup option and special teamer for the Bills.
On the offensive line, the Bills made a big move to re-sign starting center Connor McGovern this offseason, but that also meant they had to let left guard David Edwards leave in free agency. That means the Bills will return four starters while having newly signed veteran Austin Corbett battle with former sixth offensive lineman Alec Anderson to see who will be the starting left guard. There are some question marks surrounding what this line will play like in a new scheme and under a new coach, but it’s been one of the better offensive lines in football over the last few seasons, and we should expect that to continue.
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2026 Buffalo Bills 2026 Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 10.5Pick: Over (-120)
The last time the Bills won fewer than 11 games was in 2019, so recent production would suggest that the over is a good bet here. In fact, the Bills have won at least 12 games in three of their last four seasons. While the Bills have some difficult components to their schedule, like an NFL-leading six short-week games, Sharp Football Analysis gives them the 14th-ranked schedule in the league. They will also play four games against rebuilding Dolphins and Jets squads, and seem ripe to take at least one game off the Patriots as the teams battle for the AFC East crown again. The Bills will also get the benefit of home-field advantage in their brand new stadium against some tough teams like the Lions, Chargers, Chiefs, and Ravens, so it seems like a good bet to back Buffalo to hit the over again.
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