There is little that Donald Trump seems to enjoy so much as making his presence felt on the world stage – so long as he’s the one calling the shots.
He managed to do this to great, if exhausting, effect throughout most of the first year of his second term through constant threats of tariffs. At the slightest provocation, or seemingly just on a whim, the president would rip up a newly-minted trade deal and announce sweeping new tariffs on a longtime ally or trading partner. They would inevitably have to respond and react, and a hurried deal making would follow. Rinse and repeat.
The Supreme Court of the United States put an end to that particular play when it ruled Trump’s tariffs were unlawful, leading the president to look for new ways to impose his will upon the world at large, with mixed success.
Threatening to invade various allies and neighbours was certainly attention-grabbing, while capturing Nicolas Maduro in an overnight raid in Venezuela was – at least in the short term – a spectacular victory.
It seemed to be enough to persuade a once war-shy Trump in late February to launch a war against Iran, in partnership with Israel – one which Trump promised would deliver spectacular results for the US and the world, in no time and at virtually no cost.
Several months later, it is proving to be a costly mistake indeed. The conflict has cost thousands of lives, and caused substantial infrastructure damage across the region. The US military has lost at least 14 soldiers and has spent billions on munitions and missiles, some of which could take years to replenish. The costs to the global economy of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are an order of magnitude larger still.
But for a man like Donald Trump all of that is as nothing when compared to the blow to his dignity. At the G7 conference of major world leaders, Trump was determined to present himself as in-charge and as powerful as ever. “I’m the boss,” he insisted in public remarks on Wednesday. But as ever when someone feels the need to say that in public…who is he trying to convince?
If Trump felt like the deal – actually a short-term memorandum of understanding – he had struck with Iran was a good one, he would have released the full text of it immediately. Instead, the details are being allowed to dribble out, and all of them look horrible for the US: Iran gets billions in sanctions relief and unfrozen funds, it promises nothing on nuclear enrichment, and the US is even promising to organise up to $300 billion in reconstruction funds.
There is no hiding that this is the kind of deal you sign when you’ve lost a war and just want to get out. Trump is trying to sound like the big man with a plan. He is talking tough: “If they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head, OK?”
The reality is it is all downhill from here. Trump is only months away from midterm elections his party is likely to lose, badly. His ability to pass legislation will diminish to nothing. He will face constant scrutiny. He may not even be able to confirm his nominees. He will be a lame duck faster than he could possibly imagine.
Donald Trump at the G7 this week should be the last flourish of a president at the peak of his powers, enjoying one of his last chances to demand the world dances to his tune. Instead, it’s showing the opposite. His time is already almost over.
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