Tighten your seatbelt before the 2026 U.S. Open commences. It’s Scottie Scheffler vs. the field on the surface, but using our FRACAS projection model, we break down the Shinnecock Hills field and how the difficult course factors into the year’s third major men’s golf tournament.
Scottie Scheffler is favored to win the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills this week – obviously.
Yes, the Opta FRACAS (Field Rating and Course-Adjusted Strokes Gained) projection model concurs with every person who watches professional golf regularly.
But shortly, we’ll focus on who has a chance to catch the far-and-away favorite.
While there’s no such thing as being due to win a major, Scheffler, the world No. 1, is about as close as a player can get after winning two of them last year. He has had a “cold” year, by his ridiculous standards, not winning a tournament since the American Express in January.
But he also hasn’t missed a cut this season, has finished in the top 14 in each of his last six tournaments, and has been around the top of the leaderboard at both majors (he finished second at the Masters, then in a tie for 14th at the PGA Championship, where he was more competitive than that).
Scheffler will not be the star this week, however, that will be the par-70, 7,440-yard course in Westhampton, New York. Through its turns hosting this tournament in 2004 and 2018, Shinnecock Hills has established itself as one of the two or three most brutal major tests in golf. Its only peer in making the best players in the world question what this sport has against them might be Oakmont, site of last year’s tournament won by J.J. Spaun.
You may recall major winner Zach Johnson’s infamous “lost the golf course” interview when this tournament was last held in the Hamptons, or Phil Mickelson’s decision to putt a moving ball on the 13th green rather than watch his missed putt roll 30 yards down a hill. (It was a low-stakes precursor to what turned out to be an epic fall from grace.)
This will be fun, of course. The scores will be relatively high, and as Spaun demonstrated last year, the field will be somewhat open despite the course’s teeth. There is fluke winner at the U.S. Open, but there can still be a surprise.
Following is how the FRACAS model sees everything shaping up at the 126th U.S. Open, with all of the probabilities in our tournament predictions and player breakdown in our Golf Advanced Stats Zone.
FRACAS probabilities as of Tuesday.Why Scheffler is an Unusually Big Favorite
Scottie Scheffler being the likeliest winner is not news, but his 18.3% win probability being nearly three times that of anyone else in the field is quite something. The model has never clocked Scheffler as that much of a favorite previously, and there are a few reasons the Texan has nearly a one-in-five shot under our model. (FRACAS also has Scheffler at an incredible 52.1% to finish in the top five.)
First, to the extent that any player can be a good fit for Shinnecock Hills, Scheffler is one. His FRACAS rating, which is a course-adjusted strokes-gained figure, improves by 0.3 shots per round at Shinnecock over his baseline, which is already better than anyone else’s.
He is dominating on long par 4s that play well over par, gaining more strokes per hole in those moments than anyone else in professional golf. All PGA Tour courses are dotted with this variety of hole nowadays, but Shinnecock, unsurprisingly for a U.S. Open venue, is a standout here.
U.S. Open Viewing Schedule (All Times ET)
Thursday (Round 1) – USA Network, 6:30 a.m.-5 p.m.; Peacock and NBCSN, 5-8 p.m. Friday (Round 2) – Peacock, 6:30 a.m.-7:30 p.m.; NBCSN, 6:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m. ET; NBC, 1:30-7:30 p.m. Saturday (Round 3) – USA Network, 10 a.m.-noon; NBC and Peacock, noon-8 p.m. Sunday (Round 4) – USA Network, 9 a.m.-noon; NBC and Peacock, noon-7 p.m.FRACAS expects Scheffler to really separate himself on holes like the 519-yard 14th, the 500-yard third, the 491-yard sixth, and the 10th and 18th holes that branch off the clubhouse. On the vast majority of holes, it will be key not just to hit the fairway but to leave the right angle, because the course is all about angles.
There is also the matter of everyone else’s form. Jon Rahm (a third-highest 6.1% win probability) has only played in two events since he made a charge and finished T-2 at the PGA Championship, and they were both depressing affairs in which Rahm continued to play out the string on whatever is left of LIV Golf. Rory McIlroy (3.5%) is always a threat, but he hasn’t been heard from much since winning his second consecutive green jacket at the Masters. It’s unbelievably hard to win more than one major in a year.
FRACAS does not love Cameron Young (0.5%) here, expecting him to fare slightly worse on those mega par 4s scattered around Shinnecock Hills.
Who Else Might Bother Scheffler at Shinnecock
All of these players have real shots, but the typical heavyweights around Scheffler just don’t look quite as heavy this week. FRACAS is intrigued by Si Woo Kim (6.3%, the best non-Scheffler probability), Tommy Fleetwood (5.7%), Matt Fitzpatrick (5.2%), J.J. Spaun (4.7%), Patrick Reed (4.6%) and J.T. Poston (3.2%, fresh off a win at the Memorial).
A few specific players worth highlighting:
Spaun, the defending champion, has played just as well as Justin Thomas (see below) recently, save for a missed cut at the PGA Championship. The 35-year-old journeyman has maintained an elevated caliber of play since his triumph at Oakmont, and winning there was the best possible validation that he could win here.
Justin Thomas (0.7%) has put together six top-25 finishes in a row since May. The two-time PGA champ finished fourth at that event this year, ending a several-years stretch of not being serious in the majors. Thomas has not putted particularly well this year, but there’s a good chance nobody putts that well at Shinnecock Hills, where the whole field might be forced to wind up long lag putts rather than contend with high winds as they go for tight pin placements. FRACAS and I disagree on Thomas; I’m intrigued, while the model gives him the 31st-best chance.
Dustin Johnson (2.5%) is on this list? What? I was stunned to see FRACAS slot him all the way up here, two years since his last LIV win and just before he turns 42. But let’s hear the projection system out: Johnson finished fourth and T-5 in the most recent two LIV events, and his putting this year has been the best of his career. Would I say, personally, that Johnson has the 12th-best win probability here? No, but I’m intrigued that the computer likes him, given his good form, putting and a long-ago-but-consistent track record of conquering both Shinnecock and Oakmont. I can squint and see a world in which DJ has one more serious major run in him.
The Other Guy to Really Watch at the U.S. Open
The player I’m most excited to see at Shinnecock Hills is a collegian, Auburn’s Jackson Koivun (0.7%).
The 21-year-old Koivun is about to follow in the long lineage of players to take on the U.S. Open as amateurs, then immediately turn pro afterward. The PGA Tour will get one of its most exciting rookies in years. He is the clear-best amateur in the world right now, the best college player in the country, and currently ranked No. 260 in the world.
What we’ve seen from Koivun in limited PGA Tour samples is that he’s a prodigious driver of the golf ball who will have no problem with U.S. Open length. He’s putted brilliantly in his scattered Tour events, and with one exception last summer, struck the ball quite nicely on approach.
Koivun missed the cut in his U.S. Open debut at Oakmont last year, but that was only because he had an uncharacteristically horrible showing off the tee. He was one of the best putters and approach players in the field, and it’s easy to see a world in which Koivun stays near the fairway and makes real noise.
The U.S. Open has had lots of players in Koivun’s position over the years, but none in quite some time whose chance to win was more than fan fiction. That changes this year.
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2026 U.S. Open Predictions: FRACAS Weighs in on Who Could Stop Scottie Scheffler Opta Analyst.
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