Keir Starmer has always been more comfortable abroad than at home.
Yet as he attends the final day of the G7 summit of world leaders in the French spa town of Evian-les-Bains, there is a paradox: the arena in which he is strongest is also the one now exposing how far his authority has slipped.
He is also deliberately using what could be his last appearance as Prime Minister on the world stage to bank his legacy as events at home threaten to overtake him.
This includes helping to secure a lasting peace in the Middle East and Ukraine, and establishing a closer relationship with the European Union.
Starmer welcomed the news on Tuesday that a second UK-EU summit will be held on July 22. He said his Government is “delivering on our promise to reset our relationship and put Britain at the heart of Europe.”
Whether he is still Prime Minister then is moot, but he will hope it will agree a deal for under-30s visas as part of his flagship Brexit reset policy.
Trump snub not a snub
But the signs of his diminishing influence are not hard to read.
At a summit where a bilateral with US President Donald Trump is the meeting every worked leader wants, Starmer is not, as things stand, scheduled to get one.
The PM, however, has denied that he has been snubbed by Trump, insisting the “pair get on really well.”
The relationship between the two men soured after Trump rebuked Starmer over the UK’s refusal to allow its bases to aid offensive airstrikes on Iran in March. The US President said Starmer was “not Winston Churchill”.
Starmer will be keen to avoid any further clashes with Trump – particularly over defence – in the wake of John Healey’s resignation as Defence Secretary last Thursday.
Healey said Number 10 and the Treasury were only prepared to give around £10bn in additional money for his Defence Investment Plan (DIP) – around £18bn less than what military chiefs had reportedly asked for.
In his resignation speech in the Commons on Tuesday the former defence secretary repeated his fears that the government was not treating the issue urgently enough. “Our adversaries do not follow timetables set by the Treasury,” he said.
Speaking in the margins of the summit, Starmer, who met Trump for the first time since the row over the Iran strikes in March, insisted he and the US President have a cordial relationship. The two men sat next to each other for two hours at the welcome dinner on Monday night.
Starmer told reporters: “I actually spoke to Donald Trump on Saturday before we came. We get on really well and I’ve been with him on the phone and last night and this morning, and we’re sitting next to each other so as you know there’s lots of room for side conversations in the margins.”
‘Honest and frank conversation’ with Trump
The Prime Minister is facing the most consequential week of his premiership. Thursday’s Makerfield by-election could pave the way for Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster and a tilt at No 10.
First, though, he must navigate his way through the G7 summit without provoking Trump, amid fears the PM’s social media ban and the recent row over defence spending could incur his wrath.
Trump has little patience for foreign regulation of US tech giants, which he views as national champions, and has repeatedly called on Europe to spend more on its military.
Asked if Trump had raised concerns about either issue, and whether it could negatively impact the UK’s relationship with the US, Starmer said: “No, and no, and no. I sat next to Donald Trump for two hours last night at dinner, which was just the G7 leaders. There were no listening rooms, there were no staff, no advisers. It was literally an opportunity for all of us to have a very honest and frank conversation.”
Sir Keir Starmer and Victoria Starmer meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the G7 summit on Tuesday Photo.Isabel Infantes/PA WireWith Burnham waiting in the wings, Starmer will be acutely aware that his influence on the world stage may be waning amid fears he could soon be deposed.
On Tuesday morning, The Guardian reported that the planned session on Ukraine was delayed after the G7 host, French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump held unscheduled talks, while other world leaders, including Starmer, hovered outside.
A confused Starmer was overheard asking if “they” were having a meeting.
Asked whether he was being snubbed by Trump, the PM told reporters: “Honestly, I mean, we’ve just spent two hours last night sat next to each other, chatting to each other.
“I spoke to him on the phone on Saturday for quite some time, one to one, as we often do.“I’ve been sat next to him and discussing things in the margin with him this morning, and we’re about to go into another session in five minutes, where I’ll be sitting next to him again.
“So we are talking pretty constantly throughout this and it’s been very productive, very good conversations.”
Defence now an awkward subject
The timing of John Healey’s resignation as Defence Secretary last week could not have been worse for the PM as he prepared to head to the G7 summit.
Trump has long complained about Europe’s approach to defence. His administration has repeatedly accused European governments of underinvesting in their militaries and over-relying on American protection.
At last year’s NATO summit in The Hague he secured agreement from allies to lift spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035 – comprising at least 3.5 per cent on core defence and a further 1.5 per cent on wider security.
That makes it an awkward subject for Starmer, with his defence investment plans in disarray amid conflicting claims over whether new money will actually be made available to the incoming Defence Secretary, Dan Jarvis.
Asked explicitly whether there was any new money, Starmer appeared to suggest that there was not.
He said: “What we’re now doing is going through with the new Defence Secretary, who’s obviously reading into this, where he wants that money to be spent, because he will now want to look at his own priorities and capabilities, and he may want to take a slightly different approach as to what those capabilities and priorities are now he’s looking at the plan.”
Ukrainian legacy
Starmer, who was due to hold a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Vlodymir Zelensky on Tuesday evening, is determined to make progress on Ukraine.
He said there was a “real sense that things are changing,” adding that Ukraine is “now taking territory, which it has done in the last few months, rather than defending territory, that the impact of sanctions is quite great on Russia.”
Starmer also said the “mood in Moscow is changing.”
He added that the UK will play its “full part” in getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened “as soon as possible”, and that he and Macron were bringing together countries prepared to protect vessels in the Strait, a key oil shipping channel effectively closed by Iran since the war began in February.
The exact details of the US-Iran deal to end the war have not been released, but Trump has said the strait will fully reopen when the initial agreement is signed this week.
Starmer said: “It’s going to make a material difference to our economies, to stability in the world, and of course we’re [G7 countries] all united in saying that Iran must not get… a nuclear weapon.”He added that he had congratulated Trump on striking a deal with Iran, describing it as “a really important breakthrough”.
Starmer may yet help broker peace abroad. However, the fight that will decide his own future is the one waiting for him at home.
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