ROCHESTER, N.Y. — President Donald Trump is celebrating a framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran that has led to an immediate drop in the price of oil, but experts say it could take months or even years before gas prices return to $3 a gallon.
The price of gas generally corresponds with the price of oil since oil is the primary ingredient in gas. Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded around $83 a barrel on Monday, a drop of more than 4%. But before the war it was trading at around $70 a barrel, and a lot will have to happen before a return to that price.
Companies that provide insurance for oil tankers will have to trust that the Strait of Hormuz is permanently open before daring to move ships in and out. And Middle East producers have shut down because they couldn’t move their oil.
Restarting those sites could take weeks, but repairing damaged sites could take years. So, industry experts predict it could take months, perhaps years for the global market to return to pre-war production and refining levels.
“We could see prices declining rather quickly if there’s significant clarity on the strait reopening and expecting that it will remain reopen. But while that relief may be swift, it may take many months if not more than a year for to fully catch up on the amount of oil that’s been blocked,” Patrick De Haan said in an interview with Dewberry on May 11, 2026.In recent interviews De Haan has said it could be mid to late 2027 before the price at the pump dips back to $3 a gallon.
There are conflicting reports about what the deal actually entails. Iran is saying that the deal gives Tehran control of the Strait of Hormuz and does not mandate that it curb its nuclear program. Meanwhile the U.S. is saying the deal mandates that the strait will be open, and Iran has committed to never developing a nuclear weapon.
At this point, it’s not even clear if and when the deal will be signed. Vice President Vance said it has been signed electronically, but Iran disputes that, saying it will be signed on Friday.
Consumer alert: Gas prices will come down, but it will be months before it returns to $3 a gallon WHEC.com.
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