Cubs Playoff Odds — After getting stomped last night in Pittsburgh, the Chicago Cubs have officially lost TEN games in a row, completely wiping away one of their winning streaks from earlier this season and moving into last place in the NL Central.
Well, technically, they’re tied with the Pirates, but the Pirates have taken four of their first five games, so the tie-breaker leans their way. Check out the standing, and don’t look away.
NL Central Standings:
Brewers: 32-20 Cardinals: 29-24 (3.5 GB) Reds: 29-25 (4.0 GB) Pirates: 29-26 (4.5 GB) Cubs: 29-26 (4.5 GB)The Cubs are similarly out of a playoff spot in the Wild Card race, trailing the Padres (31-23), D-Backs (30-24), Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates. With that said, the Cubs are just one game out there. Not that I’m scoreboard watching here on May 27. Truly, it doesn’t quite work that way just yet. Or, at least, it’s a fruitless endeavor.
Two weeks ago, the Cubs had the literal best record in baseball. So. Things change.
HOWEVER, I do find it useful to check in on the statistically measured Cubs playoff odds and simulated rest-of-season projections. That has more predictive value than our emotions during a ten-game losing streak. After all, we didn’t think the Cubs were the greatest team ever when they won ten games in a row, so it stands to reason that they’re probably not the worst team ever now that they’ve dropped ten. They might be. But probably not.
So …
Cubs Playoff Odds Tumble
Before the season began, FanGraphs had the Cubs winning the NL Central (35.7% shot to lead the division by the end of the season), but with just 85 wins. Their overall playoff odds, including the Wild Card, stood at 54%.
On May 8, at their high-water mark, FanGraphs had the Cubs winning the division with a record of 91-70 (63.4% odds of claiming the central), and their overall playoff odds at a healthy 91.2%.
Today, after their ten-game losing streak, FanGraphs has the Cubs down to just an 84-win projection, with just a 14.1% chance of winning the NL Central. Personally, I think that’s too low, even now, but that’s just my gut. In terms of the Wild Card, the Cubs are sitting at 31.9%, resulting in a total Cubs playoff odds figure of 46%.
That’s third best in the NL Central.
You can toggle between the three days addressed to see how things have changed since Opening Day:
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