This year's Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be quieter than average, according to NOAA's National Weather Service forecast. According to NOAA, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicts "a 55% chance of a below-normal season," with a 35% chance of a near-normal season and just a 10% chance of above-normal activity.
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NOAA has 70% confidence in its forecast ranges, but as Ken Graham, NOAA's National Weather Service Director, emphasized, "Although El Niño's impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. That is why it's essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."
How to Stay Hurricane-Ready
Just because the forecast calls for below-normal activity doesn't mean you should skip hurricane prep. The season runs from June 1 through November 30, and a single major storm can cause devastating damage regardless of whether it occurs during an active or quiet year.
According to NOAA officials, preparing ahead of time—rather than waiting for a storm threat—is critical for staying safe.
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