The Atlantic hurricane season is just around the corner, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just released its official forecast—and it's surprisingly good news for once.
This year's Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be quieter than average, according to NOAA's National Weather Service forecast. According to NOAA, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicts "a 55% chance of a below-normal season," with a 35% chance of a near-normal season and just a 10% chance of above-normal activity.
So what does that actually mean in numbers? NOAA is forecasting a total of eight to14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). For comparison, an average season typically brings 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
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The forecast comes down to competing weather patterns. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season—and El Niño typically works to limit tropical storm and hurricane formation. At the same time, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. Those warmer waters and lighter winds are what usually contribute to more active storm seasons.
NOAA has 70% confidence in its forecast ranges, but as Ken Graham, NOAA's National Weather Service Director, emphasized, "Although El Niño's impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. That is why it's essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."
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How to Stay Hurricane-Ready
Just because the forecast calls for below-normal activity doesn't mean you should skip hurricane prep. The season runs from June 1 through November 30, and a single major storm can cause devastating damage regardless of whether it occurs during an active or quiet year.
NOAA is rolling out new tools this season to help keep people safe. The National Hurricane Center will implement an improved forecast cone graphic that now includes tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. New products and services are also coming to Hawaii, including storm surge watches and warnings.
According to NOAA officials, preparing ahead of time—rather than waiting for a storm threat—is critical for staying safe.
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