The Chicago Cubs once again opened a game against the Milwaukee Brewers with a great shot to put some runs on the board in the first inning. Two on, nobody out, and the heart of the lineup coming up. But just like the night before, Alex Bregman flew out to center field, Ian Happ struck out, and Seiya Suzuki finished up the inning without plating a run.
“Frustrating – for me, especially,” Happ said, per Cubs.com. “I’ve been in that situation late and haven’t come through enough for the group. It’s not going to be like that all year. The tide’s going to turn. We’re going to get a bunch of base hits with runners in scoring position. That’s coming.”
Maybe so.
But it’s been hard not to notice just how extreme the issues have been with runners in scoring position for certain Cubs hitters this year. For a number of hitters, the results have been great (and, generally speaking, you expect hitters to be a touch better with runners in scoring position because of the way it impacts the pitcher and the defensive alignment), but for some guys, it’s been a dreadful slog.
Worst of all? The three guys in the most run-produce-y-type spots in the lineup are three of the worst offenders with runners in scoring position so far this year:
(via FanGraphs)That’s the Cubs’ current number three hitter in Alex Bregman, number four hitter in Ian Happ, and number five hitter in Seiya Suzuki putting up abysmal numbers in the biggest spots. In other words, the guys getting the most opportunities to put runs on the board have been among the worst at actually putting runs on the board.
Now, we know that RISP numbers are subject to wild fluctuations and aren’t always predictive (in-season, or between seasons). What tends to be most predictive of performance in these spots is historical performance overall. And, since each of Bregman, Happ, and Suzuki has been a very good hitter overall in his career, you’d tend to bet on them rebounding in these situations, too. Logically, I know this is correct.
… but it’s really hard to be logical in the face of a 2-8 stretch, when the offense is in such a bad place. Sometimes you just want to be a fan and say: CHANGE SOMETHING. ANYTHING. MOVE GUYS WHEREVER. MAKE IT RIDICULOUS. WHO CARES AT THIS POINT?!
Mostly I’m just frustrated by this situation, where you have really key hitters back-to-back-to-back unable to come up with the big hit. I’m sure it’ll turn at some point, and then it’ll seem like at least one of them “always” comes through. It certainly felt that way a few weeks ago. But in the interim, it’s torture.
As for what the Cubs actually do about all this, I’m not really sure juggling the order is going to improve anything. For one thing, the actual impact is almost always overstated. For another thing, you’re trying to projection future performance when setting a lineup, and since Michael Busch can’t hit in spots 1 through 7, you have to pick your other best bats. Since almost everyone is struggling, I guess you go with the guys who have the longest track record of success, which means the current lineup is probably as good as anything else.
Caveat to all of that? If Craig Counsell feels like a guy or two needs to get out of his own head, then that’s a legitimate reason to make some dramatic lineup changes and hope for a spark irrespective of talent. It’s rare, and you have to have a really good feel for it in the clubhouse (or it can backfire). Doubt any fans would complain right now, though.
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