In the first closed-door discussions with his illustrious guest, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a stinging rebuke regarding American arms sales to Taiwan, warning the superpowers could “collide or even enter into conflict” regarding the self-ruling island, over which China claims sovereignty. Taiwan, Xi said, “is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio scrambled to insist that U.S. policy on Taiwan remained unchanged. But the optics of the U.S. President, for whom belligerence has long been a badge of honor, appearing awkward and cowed is a stark illustration of the shifting balance of global power.
That projection of strength may be surprising given the very real challenges China faces, including an economy struggling from a prolonged property crisis, weak consumer demand, and entrenched deflation. GDP growth has slowed to around 5%, far below boom-era levels, while youth unemployment hovers near 19%.
Regarding that conflict, which has now entered its third month amid IMF warnings of a global recession, Trump said that Xi vowed during their talks not to provide military equipment to Iran and offered to help resolve hostilities. “He said, ‘I would love to be a help, if I can be of any help whatsoever,’” Trump told Fox News. A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry took a more robust tact, however, saying the conflict “should never have happened” and “has no need to continue.”
China’s contention has always been that “America behaves as a thuggish, self-interested warmonger,” says Nick Bisley, a professor of international relations at Australia’s La Trobe University. “And it’s like, ‘yep, this ticks the box.’”
Trump defended the characterization of U.S. decline as “100% correct” and expressed “very elegantly,” though “referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden.” Xi, gushed Trump, is “a man I respect greatly” who has “become, really, a friend.”
Naturally, Trump painted the trip as a success, touting a Chinese commitment to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft, saying “that’s a lot of jobs.” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also said he expects China to agree to buy a “double-digit billion” order of American agricultural products over the next three years. Though whether these turn into reality is another matter.
“The headline numbers will look very impressive,” says Chong Ja Ian, a professor of international relations at the National University of Singapore. “But I would be a little bit more cautious, because we've seen this movie before [and it's a big question] whether the Chinese side follows through.”
As the Trump Administration quickly sought an off-ramp, China appeared vindicated. When Trump and Xi met on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Busan in October, the U.S. also nixed a new regulation that would have applied export controls to the subsidiaries of sanctioned entities—a loophole that China exploited to source advanced semiconductors.
More than anything, Trump looked strangely alone despite the phalanx of top executives traveling with him. Notably, this trip was the first by any U.S. President since 1998 that didn’t include even a cursory stop-over to allied countries either before or after. “Certainly, in terms of imaging, Beijing has managed to create this picture of their might and grandeur,” says Chong.
“What China didn’t say matters,” says Sung. “In spite of all the good vibes and compliments, China today still doesn’t think the U.S. and China see each other as partners when it counts.”
As Trump departed Beijing on Friday afternoon, he gave a fist pump at the door of Air Force One, while another cheering crowd waved more U.S. flags. But while he will no doubt hail the trip as a triumph, it was difficult to see it as anything other than a changing of the guard. Adds Sung: “China showed that they have established themselves clearly as a peer to the U.S.”
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