ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Lake Ontario could reach a flood-prone stage by next Friday, according to the latest report from the International Joint Commission, leaving local lakeshore communities concerned.
For weeks, News10NBC has been tracking the lake levels and how communities are preparing. The lake could reach 247.3 feet, meaning flood stage, by Friday, May 22, according to the IJC, a U.S.-Canadian partnership that tracks water levels in the Great Lakes.
IJC board member Tony David says the lake levels started to taper off, but rainfall this week caused levels to trend back up. However, David believes that the lake is at a plateau point because of a reduction of natural water flowing into the Lake Ontario basin. The outflows are no longer limited by what’s happening downstream.
“When you’re in a very extreme, wet conditions or record-breaking conditions, the peak of Lake Ontario can happen well into the first week of June or the second week of June,” he said. “So, I think we’re very close to observing peak. And a lot of the major thresholds that produce record conditions have passed.”
David said forecasting levels requires constant refinement because of how much natural and uncontrolled water supplies fluctuate. Lake Ontario is part of an interconnected system made up of about a half dozen Great Lakes gauges, including one in Rochester.
The system requires cooperation between agencies to make sure one part isn’t backed up and that water is being evenly dispersed. Water from the upper Great Lakes basins flows into Lake Ontario, then into the St. Lawrence River.
“The first step looks at the level. Lake Ontario calculates an outflow. The second step looks at limits within the system, particularly in the St. Lawrence River,” he said. “So at any given time, the plan could calculate a flow, but it can’t achieve it because of downstream conditions. Right now, the outflow is 284,600 cubic feet per second. It’s a massive, massive volume of water.”
David added that the only thing the IJC can do is make enough small adjustments that add up to small improvements to the entire lake system. News10NBC has been covering lake conditions since this threat first arrived about a month ago. Towns have been providing sandbags and putting up trailer pumps.
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