I don’t think anyone should have any real bad things to say about Alex Bregman right now, but I understand and agree that the overall/top-level production to begin his Cubs tenure has been modest at best. I mean, to be more specific about it, Bregman has been literally “average” this season, both offensively (100 wRC+) and defensively (a few errors, some solid plays, mostly looks fine).
In the first year of a $175M deal, yeah, we’re justified in expecting more. But here’s the thing, I actually do think that’s coming. In fact, it’s already started, and in a sustainable way … that’s the point of this post!
In the meantime, though, I think most fans know that Alex Bregman has already come through for the team in several big moments this year — indeed, he’s slashing .368/.429/.526 (164 wRC+) in “high-leverage.” He’s also rarely striking out, and he’s still getting on base quite a bit overall. And that all helps the vibes around his production. But as the title and intro teased, there are promising things happening under the hood, and the production is already trending up because of it. That’s what we’ll explore today.
Chicago Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn ImagesAlex Bregman is Trending Up
Okay, first things first: When did the production start getting better for Alex Bregman?
Right around April 20.
Before (97 PAs): .233/.309/.314 (80 wRC+) After (68 PAs): .263/.382/.421 (129 wRC+)That’s obviously a dramatic improvement. But it does make you wonder if anything has actually changed or if he’s just getting lucky. Well, the BABIP did increase, but only to .298, which is well within a reasonable range for him. That’s more “he stopped being unlucky” than “he started getting plain lucky,” if you follow me. Especially because it’s supported by the actually important underlying statistics that come next.
At the start of the season, you may recall that even though Bregman was hitting the ball hard and often enough (90.6 MPH EV, 45.8 hard%), it was too often on the ground (50.0 GB%). That’s why the power was lagging SO far behind everything else. But in this more recent stretch of improved performance, he’s cut his groundball rate all the way down to 37.5%! For reference, league average is 42.3%.
39.6).
So that’s a dramatic improvement to the underlying performance. And while it came at the slight expense of average exit velo, his hard-hit rate *and* his barrel rate have both improved as a direct result. A worthy trade-off, without a doubt.
In fact, even though the production has been good since April 20, he’s actually been UNLUCKY in this most recent stretch:
(1) .263 AVG vs .283 xAVG (2) .421 SLG vs .491 xSLG(3) .359 wOBA vs .386 xwOBA
So that’s all great to see.
To be intellectually honest, I don’t love that he’s offering at more pitches out of the zone in this more recent stretch, but his zone swing rate and zone contact rate have remained stable, and he’s actually walking more than he’s striking out anyway. So I actually don’t think there’s any issue or concern there. His command/knowledge of the strike zone and ability to put the ball in play is up there with the best in the game across both windows.
So bottom line here, the groundball issues that Bregman was facing at the start of the season (what was sapping his power and overall production) have started to go away quickly and significantly. And with more line drives and more fly balls, the power has already started to return with signals of more to come. Really good stuff.
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