Ousting Keir Starmer as Prime Minister will lead to an early general election, Labour rebels have been warned as the speculation and briefings over his future was described as reaching a “fever pitch” in the party.
A Government source warned that changing leader after this weekend’s expected disastrous local election results would mean a “general election next year”. Downing Street also highlighted Starmer’s “five-year mandate” from voters, which supporters argue would be breached under a new PM pursuing different policies.
With Labour on course to lose thousands of council seats in England to Reform UK on Thursday an early election would likely see Farage win the keys of Downing Street. Voters will also elect new Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, with Labour expected to lose the Senedd for the first time since it was created in 1999 and the SNP to hold on to power in Scotland.
The i Paper spoke to more than a dozen insiders from across all wings of the party about the possibility of a leadership challenge and found MPs are unable to agree amid claim and counterclaim on their best course of action.
The mystery letter
All three of the leadership frontrunners – Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham – were accused by multiple sources of being behind an open letter reportedly due to be published after Thursday’s polls, calling on Starmer to set a timetable for his departure.
Some claimed a longer timetable would suit both Rayner, the former deputy PM who needs to resolve a tax dispute with HMRC and Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, who needs to overcome Starmer’s block on him returning to Parliament, as only MPs are eligible to stand as party leader.
One Labour source said the call for a timetable, an echo of the successful so-called curry house coup against Sir Tony Blair in 2006, was “code for ‘delay until Andy’s back’ – it’s his supporters behind this.”
Others claimed health secretary Wes Streeting’s natural allies in the political centre and Labour right in the 2024 intake were in fact orchestrating it.
But allies of all three contenders denied responsibility.
Meanwhile, claims that senior soft-left backbenchers were organising the letter were immediately denied by two of those named in private.
But two sources said that those who led the successful rebellion against Rachel Reeves’s proposed welfare cuts last year were among those being sounded out to sign the letter.
Despite reports that MPs elected for the first time in 2024 were behind the round-robin, several from that intake were baffled about its existence, saying they had not seen or heard of it apart from in reports.
One senior 2024 intake MP said: “There are no letters, all rumours”.
‘Put up or shut up’
The suggestion that Starmer should set a timetable for his departure, described by one Government source as “noising off”, triggered a backlash and calls for an immediate leadership contest.
One senior 2024 MP said demands to set a timetable were “pathetic”.
“It’s at the point where people need to put up or shut up,” the MP said
“Setting a timetable will paralyse the government, and send us into months of talking to ourselves before we spend even more months in a formal leadership process of … talking to ourselves.
“The reason [Gordon] Brown did this to Blair was because people thought Blair might actually go on to lead Labour into the next general election – almost everyone knows that’s not going to happen with Keir.
“The leadership camps have created a moment after the local elections if they haven’t got the courage to go over the top at that point they don’t have the courage to serve and to provide change.”
The source, who blamed Burnham for the letter, said setting a timetable would make the PM a “lame duck” that would mean “sacrificing the third year of a Labour government, all to serve one man’s ambition”.
“The third year is our last chance to enact big changes that will come into force before the next election,” the source said.
“Anyone who signs this letter is surrendering our last chance to deliver real change.”
Labour MP Luke Akehurst meanwhile blamed leadership speculation for contributing to rising borrowing costs on financial markets. Posting on X he said: “Slow hand clap for people who have fuelled leadership challenge speculation, they are not just harming Labour’s chances on Thursday, now actually harming the public finances and reducing our ability to increase spending. Shameful.”
MP Karl Turner, who currently has the Labour whip suspended, said: “The idea that Keir Starmer is going to come out after Thursday and set a date for exiting No 10 is ludicrous.”
Could a challenge come sooner?
One Labour MP, a supporter of Starmer, said they had experienced “overt canvassing” from both Streeting and Rayner’s camps which suggested that “we seem to be heading to a contest now which means Burnham can’t stand”.
Another MP said both sides have “become overtly friendly” with Rayner’s allies in particular “warming folks up”, adding there was “definitely an operation”.
Allies of both the immediate potential contenders however denied the claims, with both believed to be reluctant to move first.
Sources close to Defence Minister Al Carns, thought to be an outside contender, meanwhile denied private talks with Rayner to brief her on defence policy and lobby for a Cabinet position as foreign or defence secretary.
A soft-left Labour insider said the fundamental dynamics on Labour backbenches have not changed for months and that this might buy both Starmer and Burnham time.
They said: “The fever pitch is mainly people bricking it about how bad the locals and nations [elections] will be for Labour.
“If Labour loses literally every seat in Barnsley and Sunderland you have to worry that discipline may break down.
“The issue is that the PLP (and the party) is really, really not united behind Wes or Ange or Ed [Miliband] and Andy isn’t an MP.
“As the old adage goes, you can’t beat someone with no-one.
“In a strange way, Burnham having a pathway into Parliament is the thing that helps Keir most.
“If people know Andy is on the way back into Parliament they’ll wait for him to get a seat.”
Would there really be an election if Starmer is replaced?
Warnings that ousting Starmer would lead to a snap national poll come after all three of the main contenders to replace him have called for policies that would appear to either breach Labour’s 2024 manifesto, or which have not been backed by voters in that election.
Streeting has appeared to endorse calls for the UK to rejoin the EU customs union, which the manifesto ruled out, although his allies insist that his comments were misinterpreted.
A leaked memo last year meanwhile revealed Rayner had backed a series of tax rises that she argued would not breach the 2024 manifesto, but which do not have explicit backing from voters and may trigger calls for a poll.
Burnham has meanwhile criticised Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules and suggested tweaks, which some would argue breaches explicit pledges in the manifesto.
Reform leader Nigel Farage has said both Rayner and Burnham would likely trigger a 2027 election due to their approach to the economy.
A Government source told The i Paper “any change of leader means we would [have an election next year]”.
A No 10 spokesman added: “Keir Starmer has a clear five-year mandate from the British people to deliver change.
“His Labour government is tackling the cost of living, cutting NHS waiting lists and restoring pride in local communities.”
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