Posted on: April 28, 2026, 02:19h.
Last updated on: April 28, 2026, 02:19h.
New poll says majority of Americans believe industry can wipeout insider trading Respondents are concerned about insider trading around elections, military actions Prediction markets also face an awareness gapAmid increasing instances of prediction market participants trading on information not widely available to the general public, most Americans express doubt about the industry’s ability to clamp down on that nefarious activity.
A mobile phone shows an app download for Kalshi, an online prediction market site. Americans don’t believe the industry can effectively reduce insider trading. (Image: Getty)A new poll from Scripps News/Talker Research indicates 63% of the 2,000 Americans queried said they’re either “not very confident” or have no confidence at all in the ability of prediction market operators to damp insider trading.
(The poll) finds widespread concerns over platforms allowing users to bet on things like elections and military actions, with little confidence that prediction markets can prevent insider trading or bad actors from taking advantage,” reports Scripps News.
Seventy-two percent of respondents to the survey said they’re concerned about insider trading on US military, which is an issue that’s come into focus following the capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and the war in Iran. Seventy-one percent said they’re worried about trading on nonpublic data pertaining to elections while fewer than half of those polled told Scripps they’re concerned about insider trading of sports event contracts.
Prediction Markets Attempting to Quash Insider Trading
Perceptions about prediction markets’ ability to eliminate or reduce insider trading are at odds with industry efforts to accomplish that objective.
For example, Kalshi, the largest yes/no exchange, last week announced closures of three insider trading cases, resulting in fines and suspensions of three political candidates. Prior to that, the company wrapped up similar cases involving another candidate for public office as well as a former employee of a social media star.
Additionally, Kalshi recently bolstered insider trading protocols to prevent athletes and politicians from trading on nonpublic information. Rival Polymarket, an alleged hotbed of insider trading, is also taking steps to crackdown on the misdeed, but Americans remain leery.
“A majority of respondents also said they are skeptical that prediction markets can prevent insider trading. Sixty-three percent say they have little to no confidence that it can be stopped, with 73% saying they are concerned that individuals with insider knowledge can manipulate and profit from the sites,” according to Scripps.
Prediction Markets Awareness Surprisingly Low
Prediction markets are dedicated advertisers and the industry is generating plenty of buzz in the mainstream media, but even with those factors overall awareness of these platforms remains surprisingly low.
The Scripps survey indicates just 19% of Americans have placed a trade on a yes/no exchange while just 16% say they know someone that has traded on a platform like Kalshi or Polymarket. Conversely, 57% said they’re either “not very” or “not at all” familiar with these platforms.
The familiarity divide plays out along generational levels. Young people, particularly millennials and Gen Z, are significantly more familiar with prediction markets than their older counterparts. Thirty-seven percent of millennials told Scripps they’ve traded on prediction markets while 31% of millennials said the same.
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