Donald Trump seems to enjoy the chaos he wreaks, or at least seems to believe it works to his advantage. Tuesday’s threat to level an “entire civilisation” if the US and Iran didn’t agree a ceasefire deal resulted in frenetic late-night diplomacy between the two parties so that everyone could say something, anything, had been signed to fend off a calamity.
The frantic negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, did at least succeed in avoiding (or delaying) the appalling strikes Trump had threatened to unleash. But in the cold light of day, it became apparent that the two sides each thought they had agreed to very different things.
Iran thought the agreement allowed it to continue enriching uranium, while the US claimed it would soon be collecting all material already enriched by Iran. The US initially seemed to have agreed to a ceasefire deal that included Lebanon, but later claimed it had never been part of a deal. The question of the Strait of Hormuz was left almost totally unresolved.
Turning a last-minute fudge into a real and lasting peace deal – one in which both sides could try to claim victory with a straight face – was always going to be a difficult task. But it’s a task that US Vice President JD Vance decided to throw himself into, after keeping an uncharacteristically low profile throughout the entire Iran crisis to date.
The ambitious Vance will surely have had an eye on his political future, knowing that the race to succeed Trump as the Republican standard-bearer will begin in earnest almost as soon as the midterms end. Vance is even more of an isolationist than Trump, opposing almost all US involvement overseas.
However bad the Iran conflict has been for Trump politically, it has been worse for Vance – and unlike Trump, Vance intends to stand for election again in the future. By choosing to re-emerge and make himself the face of the peace talks, Vance was taking a political gamble: if he could claim the credit for ending the unpopular war, maybe he could turn a weakness into a strength.
Sadly, for Vance – and for the world – his mission seems to have ended in failure. After 21 hours of face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad, the delegation led by Vance walked away empty-handed, leaving the future of the ceasefire in serious doubt. This time, the US Vice President will find it much harder to disown whatever happens next.
Vance seems to have fallen into the same trap as his boss, of assuming anything he doesn’t know much about is easy. Trump has let America’s once vaunted diplomatic service collapse into ruin: 115 of the USA’s 195 ambassadorial posts are currently vacant. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, a rich friend of the US President with no diplomatic experience, has been left to negotiate every peace deal the president has tried to sign.
Eventually, however furiously you spin and bluster, reality catches up. Trump has been moving fast and is breaking everything he touches. Vance is learning that the clean-up operation is harder than he imagined.
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