We provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for each first leg of the last 16 ties in 2025-26.
We have reached the knockout stage proper of the 2025-26 Champions League, with the last 16 ready to do battle.
As throughout the competition, the Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way and has once again got data-backed predictions for every match for us to pore over.
There are some mouthwatering ties to look forward to, and the first legs of the round of 16 take place over Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
What does the Opta supercomputer think will happen? Find out below.
Tuesday 10 March
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
The last 16 of the 2025-26 Champions League begins in Istanbul on Tuesday as Liverpool face Galatasaray, just as they did on Matchday 2 of the league phase.
The Turkish club won that game 1-0 on home soil, and have only lost one of their last nine home games against English sides in all European competition (W5 D3). That defeat was over 11 years ago, losng 4-1 to Arsenal in December 2014.
Liverpool’s record against Galatasaray isn’t great. They’ve won just one of five previous Champions League meetings (D2 L2). That gives them a win rate of 20%, their joint lowest against any side they have faced 5+ times in the competition (also 20% vs Chelsea).
Linked to that, the Reds have never won on three previous trips to Galatasaray in the Champions League (D1 L2), only visiting Chelsea more times without ever winning in the competition (5).
Nevertheless, the Opta supercomputer does make them favourites for Tuesday, returning to Anfield with a victory in 49.9% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. Galatasaray only emerged with a home win in 25.8%.
Newcastle United vs Barcelona
Another fixture we’ve already seen in this season’s Champions League, Newcastle and Barcelona renew hostilities in Tuesday’s later fixtures, with Eddie Howe’s men likely needing a big result if they are to have any hope of reaching the quarter-finals.
The Opta supercomputer doesn’t make them favourites, though, with Newcastle winning 35.2% of the pre-match simulations. Barcelona won their league-phase fixture 2-1, and were victorious at St. James’ Park again in 40.7% of sims.
The Catalans have a very good recent record against English opposition in the Champions League knockouts, winning 10 of 12 such matches since 2014. Similarly, they’ve progressed from each of their last five Champions League last-16 ties against Premier League teams, most recently in February 2018 against Chelsea (4-1 on aggregate).
Newcastle are on their longest ever unbeaten run in the Champions League (five games – W3 D2), though, and have only lost one of their last nine matches in the competition (W6 D2), a 2-1 defeat at Marseille in November.
And while Barcelona will be favourites, Newcastle have the weapons to hurt them – Anthony Gordon chief among them. He has 10 goals in the competition this season; only Erling Haaland (12 for Manchester City in 2022-23) and Ruud van Nistelrooy (12 for Manchester United in 2002-03) have scored more for an English side in a single season of the UCL/European Cup.
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
The Opta supercomputer is confidently backing Bayern Munich to return home from Bergamo with a first-leg victory on Tuesday, beating Atalanta in 55.8% of the simulations.
Atalanta took a lead into the second leg in 22.2%.
Raffaele Palladino’s men would improve their chances if they can earn a first ever clean sheet in the Champions League knockouts. They’ve not managed one in their nine such games to date, conceding 18 times at an average of two per game.
Fittingly, Bayern have the highest goals-per-game ratio (1.9) of any team in the knockout stages of the competition (min. 5 KO games).
Atalanta have also lost six of their last seven Champions League knockout games (W1), although that solitary victory was in their most recent outing, beating Borussia Dortmund 4-1 to progress to the last 16. That also equalled their biggest margin of victory in the competition’s knockouts (also 4-1 vs Valencia in February 2020).
Bayern’s only defeat in their last 12 round-of-16 games was in Italy (1-0 to Lazio in February 2024), but they go into this fixture having won seven of their eight Champions League games this term.
Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham
The Opta supercomputer’s most confident pick for Tuesday’s games is Atlético Madrid, who host Tottenham at the Metropolitano.
Spurs are in dismal form, having lost each of their last five Premier League games, and having not won any of their last 11 in the league for the first time since 1975. They managed a win in Madrid in just 19.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Atlético, on the other hand, were victorious in 59.4%.
Having said that, Diego Simeone’s men do have a poor record against English opposition in the Champions League. They’ve only won one of their last 10 such matches, a 1-0 defeat of Manchester United in March 2022.
Nonetheless, a Spurs win would be a shock – and not just because of troubles they’ve had this term.
Atlético haven’t lost a home UCL knockout game under Diego Simeone, winning seven out of 11 at the Vicente Calderón and six out of eight at the Metropolitano.
Wednesday 11 March
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
The early game on Wednesday pits the favourites to win the Champions League, Arsenal, against Bayer Leverkusen.
Their only previous meetings European meetings were in the second group stage of the Champions League in 2001-02, drawing 1-1 in Germany and Arsenal winning 4-1 at Highbury.
The Gunners are having an excellent season, currently top of the Premier League and having finished first in the league phase of this competition. They secured a first-leg advantage in 58% of the supercomputer simulations.
Leverkusen have progressed from four of their five major European knockout ties against English clubs, though, failing only against Liverpool in 2004-05 in the Champions League. Kasper Hjulmand’s men were able to win the first leg in 18.9% of sims.
Even taking the lead would be a small victory for Leverkusen. Arsenal are the only team who haven’t trailed at any point in the Champions League this season (62% winning, 38% drawing of their total match time).
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Different year, same fixture. It’s a glamour tie that we’ve already been treated to in the league phase, where Man City won 2-1 in Madrid, but this will be the fifth time they have met in the knockout stage; the first time a fixture has occurred for that many consecutive years in the competition.
City have been eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid on four occasions, the only side to knock them out more than twice. That includes in each of the last two seasons: 2023-24 quarter-finals and 2024-25 play-offs.
However, Madrid have been wobbling of late, and have injury issues to some key players heading into this one. Man City aren’t having a perfect season themselves, but they do win the first leg in Spain in 45.5% of sims.
There’s something about Real Madrid and the Champions League, but the supercomputer doesn’t let that skew its calculations, with Los Blancos only winning on home soil in 29.9% of sims.
You would back them to score, though. Madrid have scored in 39 Champions League knockout games in a row at the Santiago Bernabeu, averaging 2.2 goals per match (86 in total). The last away team to keep a clean sheet away to Real Madrid in the competition was Barcelona in April 2011, who were then managed by Pep Guardiola (2-0 win).
Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea
In a replay of last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup final, PSG will be out for revenge against the winners of that game, Chelsea.
The reigning European champions failed to convince once more in the league phase, needing to overcome Monaco in the knockout play-offs, but we all know what happened this time last year once they stumbled into the last 16. PSG went on to win their first Champions League, and the supercomputer sees them as strong challengers again.
The Ligue 1 side won just under half (49.2%) of the supercomputer’s pre-match sims of this game, with Chelsea only taking a lead back to Stamford Bridge in 26.4%.
Notably, last season, PSG got past three Premier League teams on their route to the final (Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal), while they also beat Chelsea 4-2 on aggregate the last time they met in this competition in the last 16 in 2015-16.
Chelsea have only won two of their eight Champions League matches against PSG (D3 L3). The only teams they have lost more games against are Bayern Munich and Barcelona (four each).
Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP
If someone told you at the start of the season that Bodø/Glimt would be favourites to win in the last 16 of the Champions League, you may have raised a quizzical eyebrow.
That’s the reality though, with the plucky Norwegian’s given a 38.9% chance of beating Sporting CP in the first leg, compared to the Portuguese side’s 36.3%.
Bodø/Glimt have remarkably won their last four games in the Champions League, made especially impressive by the strength of their opponents. Kjetil Knutsen’s side have beaten Man City, Atlético Madrid and Inter (twice) to get to this point.
They have a good record against Portuguese opposition too, having won both of their previous two games against Primeira Liga sides in European competition, both coming in last season’s Europa League (3-2 vs Porto and 2-1 vs Braga).
Sporting CP have won two and lost one of their three previous games away to Norwegian opposition, winning at Lyn in 1971 (3-0 in the Cup Winners’ Cup) and Rosenborg in 2019 (2-0 in the Europa League), but losing at Viking in 1999 (3-0 in the UEFA Cup).
All data correct as of Monday 9 March
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UEFA Champions League: Last-16 First-Leg Predictions Opta Analyst.
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