Set for their fifth meeting this season, we look ahead to Saturday’s FA Cup clash with our Newcastle vs Man City prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Manchester City: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer gives Manchester City a 44.6% chance of success in this fifth-round contest against Newcastle United. Man City recently knocked Newcastle out in the EFL Cup semi-finals. The only two teams to eliminate them from both domestic cups in one season are Wimbledon (1987-88) and Arsenal (2007-08). Newcastle have progressed from nine of their last 10 FA Cup fifth-round ties, only losing to Brighton at this stage last year; two of those wins came against City.Following three straight wins over Newcastle in the space of a few weeks, Manchester City will try to clip the Magpies’ wings once again when they reconvene on Saturday, with the winner bound for this year’s FA Cup quarter-finals.
However, City go into this encounter having dropped crucial points in the Premier League title race on Wednesday thanks to a frustrating 2-2 home draw with Nottingham Forest.
Halting a seven-match winning streak on home turf, they came up short despite attempting 774 passes – the most by any team in one Premier League fixture this season – recording 21 shots and boasting a 69.9% share of the ball.
Now seven points behind Arsenal with one game in hand, the Opta supercomputer gives Pep Guardiola’s men just a 7.16% chance of reclaiming the title.
So, talk of a potential quadruple has been quelled, but City fans are still dreaming of a memorable cup treble.
Already into the EFL Cup final, having qualified at Newcastle’s expense, they will also soon meet Real Madrid again in the UEFA Champions League; and this weekend, they can take another step towards FA Cup glory.
That requires another trip up to St. James’ Park, where City won 2-0 in the EFL Cup semis.
Since then, Newcastle have lost twice more to their familiar foes from Manchester, most recently suffering a 2-1 Premier League defeat at the Etihad Stadium on 21 February.
Following that setback, the Magpies have stayed put on Tyneside, serving up a mixed set of results on home turf.
After polishing off Qarabag in the Champions League, they lost 3-2 to fellow European hopefuls Everton, before Eddie Howe’s 10 men stunned Manchester United on Wednesday, securing a 2-1 victory against the odds.
Aiding their faltering European ambitions, they recovered from a calamitous end to the first half, which saw Casemiro cancel out Anthony Gordon‘s penalty and Jacob Ramsey receive a second yellow card for simulation.
After Aaron Ramsdale then made two fine saves to keep them in contention, substitute Will Osula curled home a dramatic late winner, before the hosts successfully negotiated stoppage time.
Newcastle are now perched on 39 points, just five behind seventh-placed Brentford with nine games to go. But before resuming their top-flight campaign, they face back-to-back knockout games.
Barcelona visit St. James’ Park next week, kicking off an enticing last-16 clash in the Champions League after Newcastle continue their quest for a seventh FA Cup.
Although they’ve progressed from nine of their last 10 fifth-round ties – twice against Manchester City, in 1995 and 2002 – they were beaten 2-1 by Brighton at this stage last season.
Seven-time winners City have won 18 of their last 20 FA Cup matches, only losing in consecutive finals against Manchester United and Crystal Palace.
In rounds three to five, City have won their last 23 games by an aggregate score of 89-11 since losing 1-0 to Wigan back in 2018.
While Newcastle have already made it past Premier League opposition to get this far, beating Bournemouth and Aston Villa, City’s route has been a little less fraught.
Pitched against lower-league sides, Guardiola and Co. have benefitted from three own goals (two vs Exeter, one vs Salford), which is a joint-record for a Premier League side in one FA Cup campaign.
They may not need such help on Saturday, as Antoine Semenyo has stepped into the breach after Erling Haaland‘s scintillating form took a mid-season downturn.
The Ghana forward has already been involved in nine goals for his new club (seven goals, two assists). Since making his debut in January, Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres (10) is the only Premier League player to post more goal involvements across all competitions.
Nico O’Reilly struck twice in the last meeting with Newcastle, but the 20-year-old has recently missed two games with an ankle injury and may not be ready to start.
Before their run of three straight defeats to Man City, Newcastle won 2-1 on home soil in late November, with Harvey Barnes scoring both goals in an enthralling second half.
To date, the winger has been directly involved in five goals from seven home FA Cup starts (four goals, one assist), while he also leads the Magpies’ for both shots taken (eight) and chances created (four) in this season’s competition.
As injuries are piling up, Barnes might start again, although Howe could turn to Yoane Wissa, Jacob Murphy or record signing Nick Woltemade to freshen up his hard-running attack.
Newcastle vs Man City Head-to-Head
This will be the 11th FA Cup tie between Newcastle United and Manchester City. The latter have won the last two – quarter-finals in 2020 and 2024 – having progressed from only two of the first eight.
Across all competitions, they have met four times already this season – two in Newcastle, then two in Manchester – and Man City have won three times after losing the first.
City won both legs of their EFL Cup semi-final, before coming out on top in the Premier League just a fortnight ago.
Newcastle vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Man City a healthy 42.8% chance of another fifth-round victory.
Newcastle prevailed in far fewer of Opta’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, with their hopes of success rated at 31.8%.
That leaves a 25.4% chance of the tie going to extra-time, and potentially a penalty shootout.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Man City Prediction: Can Magpies Scotch City’s Cup Treble Hopes? Opta Analyst.
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