The US-Israeli attack on Iran has precipitated a war that is rapidly turning into a world crisis, similar to that caused by the 1973 Israeli-Arab war or the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which likewise capsized the international order.
Iran has already turned the war into a regional conflict with vast global impact by spreading the area of hostilities to the Gulf. It has closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes a fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports. More unexpectedly, it has attacked and forced the closure of a huge oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Qatar.
Crucial parts of the international energy infrastructure like these are clustered on the western side of the Gulf and are easy for Iran to target with missiles and drones from the comparatively short distance of 200 miles away. The threat of an attack on highly combustible oil and gas facilities forces their closure. Natural gas prices in Europe have already doubled this week. On Tuesday morning alone Brent crude futures rose 8 per cent to $84 a barrel.
Attacks on fragile energy and transport infrastructure are reportedly part of an Iranian plan, devised since its 12-day war against Israel in June last year. “Iran, unlike the United States, has prepared itself for a long war,” said Ali Larijani, Iran’s most senior surviving security official, on X on Monday. Given the ease with which the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was assassinated on Saturday by an Israeli strike in his own compound in Tehran, there must be doubts about the thoroughness of Iranian preparation.
But Iran is now taking advantage of its ability to cause crippling damage to the Gulf countries: United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In addition to their oil and gas industry, their airports are easy to render inoperable. The Iranians have decentralised their command and control system so the death of senior officers will have less impact on their operations than it did last June.
The extent of the world economic crisis triggered by the war will be determined by how long it lasts. Donald Trump has been eager to downplay any idea that he might not have the patience to fight a long war, saying he would not get “bored” with an operation taking four to five weeks. “I don’t get bored,” he said. “There’s nothing boring about this.” Larijani said that “Trump plunged the region into chaos with his ‘delusional fantasies’” and that Iran would refuse to negotiate with the US.
Trump’s confidence is understandable given that Iran is defenceless against US and Israeli air attack. Internationally, it is isolated and without significant allies willing to assist it. Its drones and missiles fired at Israel and US bases in the region are mostly shot down, while Israeli civilians and US soldiers are largely safe in air raid shelters.
The strongest card for Iran – one that it can play for a long time, even if its overall military capacity is degraded – is its ability to strangle a key part of the world’s energy supply. It does not have to do much to accomplish this: it has closed the vital 21-mile wide Strait of Hormuz by simply threatening to hit vessels passing through it. Insurance companies immediately cancelled their cover for oil and gas tankers planning to do so, effectively blockading the Arab Gulf states. The Houthis have likewise closed the Bab el-Mandeb between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which leads to the Indian Ocean.
Important though these two choke points are for world energy supplies, their closure is scarcely a surprise. Big oil consumers like China have built up their oil reserves in case of just such a crisis. More unexpected was the attack on Monday on Qatar’s largest LNG facility at Ras Laffan, leading to its immediate closure. Another drone hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, a refinery on the Gulf coast with a capacity of 550,000 barrels a day. It too has closed.
A US and Israeli air campaign pounding Iran with thousands of bombing missions might go on for months, with a level of destruction ultimately approaching that of Gaza. Civilian casualties will be enormous, but the precedent of Gaza, where Hamas is still in charge, suggests that the Iranian authorities, however badly battered, are most unlikely to capitulate.
Iran is vastly bigger than Gaza, but 78 per cent of its 92 million people live in cities which are being relentlessly targeted by the US-Israeli onslaught.
During the last sustained US air war in the Middle East against Isis in Iraq and Syria, Isis-held cities were reduced to rubble. The US claimed to be hitting only Isis targets, but post-operational studies showed that the civilian population as a whole had suffered terrible losses.
Likewise in Gaza, Israel said it was aiming at Hamas, but it killed some 72,000 Palestinians, of whom 70 per cent were women and children according to the UN.
Parallels are drawn between the US-Israel air war today and the US wars in Afghanistan after 2001 and Iraq after 2003, yet the conflicts are very different. Afghanistan and Iraq were US ground wars, though the commitment of foreign troops failed to win them. In one respect, the US is better situated in Iran. Iran’s government has no foreign allies willing to support resistance. By way of contrast, in Afghanistan the Taliban was backed by Pakistan, while in Iraq the anti-American resistance was supported by Syria and Iran.
Trump intermittently calls for Iranians to rise up against the government, but this is easier said than done. Great numbers of Iranians may loathe their government, especially after it massacred thousands of protesters in January, but that does not mean that they will ally with foreign powers dropping bombs on them.
President George W Bush briefly called Iraqis to overthrow Saddam Hussein, as Trump is today telling Iranians, but the rebellion that did occur in Iraq was largely spontaneous. In a long conflict, the Americans and Israelis might arm and support an insurgent force in Iran, but this would take time to recruit, train and equip.
Trump is loudly claiming that all is going to plan for the US and Israel in Iran, but it is doubtful if a world economic crisis, precipitated by his actions, was on his original battle plan.
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