Look ahead to Thursday’s UEFA Europa League play-off first leg in Istanbul with our Fenerbahçe vs Nottingham Forest prediction and preview. Can Vítor Pereira get off to a winning start as Forest boss?
Fenerbahçe vs Nottingham Forest: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer could barely split these teams, with Fenerbahçe winning 37.1% of the pre-match simulations, and Nottingham Forest coming out on top in 36.6%. This is the first competitive meeting between Fenerbahçe and Forest. Fenerbahçe have won just one of their last nine matches against English sides (D2 L6 – inc. qualifiers).There’s rarely a dull week at Nottingham Forest, and the past seven days has been no different as they prepare to face Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Europa League play-off round with another new head coach at the helm.
They spent much of the 2024-25 campaign pushing for UEFA Champions League qualification under Nuno Espírito Santo, and although they ultimately fell short, this season was nevertheless meant to be a celebration of their success in returning to Europe for the first time in 30 years.
Instead, it has been defined by inconsistency and questionable decision making, with Forest now onto their fourth permanent head coach of the season, a record for a Premier League club. Last week, owner Evangelos Marinakis dismissed Sean Dyche just a few hours after Forest failed to beat lowly Wolves at home, leaving them just three points above the relegation zone.
Dyche, in fairness, could hardly have been accused of not trying to win. Forest had 35 shots, the most a team managed by Dyche have ever recorded in a Premier League match. Their 2.55 expected goals (xG) was the second-most xG generated in a match by a team who did not score since the start of last season after Leeds United (2.63) vs Burnley in October.
So, where would Marinakis turn next? Having already cycled through Nuno, Ange Postecoglou and Dyche since the start of the campaign, the Forest owner has brought in Vítor Pereira, who previously worked under Marinakis at Olympiakos.
Wolves dismissed Pereira in November on the back of a 10-game winless run to start the campaign, but Forest will be hoping for the kind of impact he had when he first took over at Molineux in 2024-25, as he steered Wolves out of the relegation zone and safely to mid-table.
Dyche was averaging 1.22 points per game in the league at Forest, and if Pereira matches that, it should be enough to stay up. And while the absolute priority will be on ensuring safety as swiftly as possible, there is first the small task of a UEFA Europa League play-off trip to Fenerbahçe.
Forest’s European results under Dyche were mainly positive, bar a dour 1-0 defeat to Braga last month. The former Everton and Burnley boss won four of his six Europa League matches in charge, with a 4-0 win over Ferencvaros a high point at the end of January.
Turkish giants Fenerbahçe, though, will present an altogether different challenge over this two-legged play-off tie. They are also another of Pereira’s former clubs.
The Portuguese coached Fenerbahçe twice, first in 2015-16, before returning for a short spell in 2021. Across those two stints, he oversaw 87 matches in all competitions, winning 49 (56.2%) and losing 22 times.
So, Pereira has history with Fener, who are second behind rivals Galatasaray in the Turkish Süper Lig.
Domenico Tedesco is their current head coach, having replaced José Mourinho, and he has plenty of talent in his squad to work with.
Among the names Premier League fans will recognise are N’Golo Kante, Ederson and Fred, while former Aston Villa loanee Marco Asensio is another star name for Forest to look out for. Pereira will also be reunited with his former Wolves captain, Nélson Semedo.
For Forest, a decent first-leg result should stand them in good stead; Fenerbahçe have never progressed from a major European tie when they have lost the first leg, going out on all 26 occasions. Similarly, they have lost the first leg in four of their last six major European knockout ties (W2).
Goals may have been in short supply for Forest in the Premier League – only Wolves have scored fewer goals than their 25 – but that has not been the case in this competition.
Their 15 goals in eight Europa League matches this season is the second most they’ve ever scored in a continental campaign, only netting more in their victorious 1978-79 European Cup campaign (19 in nine games).
In fact, Forest’s 17.6 expected goals was the most in the league phase of the Europa League this season, and going the other way, their 5.3 xG against was also the best.
Igor Jesus played his part with respect to finishing opportunities, with the Brazilian’s best performances coming in Europe.
He has scored six goals in the Europa League this season, the joint most by a Forest player in a major European campaign along with Garry Birtles in the 1978-79 European Cup (six in nine games).
The last Brazilian to score more in a Europa League campaign was Giuliano for Zenit in 2016-17 (eight).
Fenerbahçe vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head
Thursday’s contest marks the first competitive meeting between these teams. Fenerbahçe have won just one of their last nine games against English sides (D2 L6).
This is the first knockout tie between English and Turkish opponents since the 2014-15 UEFA Europa League last 32, when Liverpool faced Besiktas.
Both teams won 1-0 at home across the two legs, with Besiktas progressing after a penalty shootout win.
Fenerbahçe vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and it found this one tough to call.
The chance of a Fenerbahçe win is 37.1%, but the probability of Forest taking an advantage back to the City Ground is an almost identical 36.6%. A draw is given a 26.3% likelihood.
Fenerbahçe vs Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineups
Fenerbahçe: Ederson, Nélson Semedo, Milan Skriniar, Jayden Oosterwolde, Mert Müldür, Mattéo Guendouzi, N’Golo Kanté, Ismail Yüksek, Marco Asensio, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Talisca.
Head coach: Domenico Tedesco
Nottingham Forest: Angus Gunn, Zach Abbott, Nikola Milenkovic, Morato, Neco Williams, Ryan Yates, Ibrahim Sangaré, James McAtee, Nicolás Dominguez, Dan Ndoye, Igor Jesus.
Head coach: Vítor Pereira
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Fenerbahçe vs Nottingham Forest Prediction: Vítor Pereira Faces Former Club on Debut in Forest Dugout Opta Analyst.
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