For as much as I really do appreciate Craig Counsell as manager of the Chicago Cubs, he has one quirk that always rubs me the wrong way. And that’s when he refuses to identify the roles of any pitcher, particularly relievers, electing instead to label them all as “out-getters.”
It’s like, yeah, I get what you mean (and you’re not wrong to operate that way), but can you just answer the question? Well, guess what? He finally did! Jesse Rogers asked him who his closer would be if the season started today, and Counsell tapped Daniel Palencia as the man for the job.
Craig Counsell Taps Daniel Palencia as Closer
This was a good pull from Jesse: “I asked Craig Counsell if Daniel Palencia would get the ninth inning if the reg season was starting now. Instead of the usual ‘we have outs-getter’ answer, he simply said ‘Yes.'”
Boom. Daniel Palencia is the Cubs’ closer heading into 2026.
© David Banks-Imagn ImagesAnd while that may seem obvious, seeing as he took over the job, performing admirably, for most of last season, he did sort of fall out of that gig as the playoffs began. He still took the mound in incredibly important and high-leverage spots, but it was almost always in the middle of the game. Whether that was because Brad Keller and Andrew Kittredge had risen in the ranks or if it was just a playoff strategy, I guess I’m not sure. But those guys are both gone, and Daniel Palencia is back in the ninth.
Generally speaking, that makes me very happy, even as I noted an undercurrent of concern over the weekend:
On the one hand, I can’t shake how similar the experience feels to each of the last two seasons with Adbert Alzolay and Porter Hodge. Both guys emerged as key late-inning/high-leverage relievers out of necessity midseason (2023 for Alzolay, 2024 for Hodge), finally putting all of their promise together while becoming the obvious choice for closer heading into the winter. Unfortunately, both guys lost it in the subsequent year and flaked out almost entirely.
Adbert Alzolay (2023): 2.67 ERA, 22 Saves, 5.15 K/BBAdbert Alzolay (2024): 4.67 ERA, 4 Saves, 2.17 K/BBPorter Hodge (2024): 1.88 ERA, 9 Saves, 2.74 K/BBPorter Hodge (2025): 6.27 ERA, 2 Saves, 2.22 K/BB
Palencia, similarly, became one of the Cubs’ highest-impact relievers and closer in 2025 (2.91 ERA, 22 saves, 3.81 K/BB) and heads into the 2026 season as the obvious choice for closer. And while I do believe Palencia’s ceiling is higher than either of those guys, I can’t honestly tell you I had dramatically less confidence in Alzolay or Hodge heading into their follow-up season.
Moreover, we all know relievers are volatile. And Palencia, with his lack of experience, short track record, increasingly fast fastball, and only recently improved control, may be the poster child for “you never know what you’re going to get.” But also … this is a bit of a logical fallacy. While we can and should always lean on experience as a guide for evaluating players, the fear that Palencia will follow their lead is more of an emotional reaction than a statistical projection.
What happened to Hodge and Alzolay has no bearing on what may or may not happen to Palencia. Like, there’s an equal chance that Palencia can stay good or get better. And I don’t think I’m being hyperbolic when I say his UPSIDE as a closer is about as high as any reliever the Cubs have had in recent memory. Especially given his age.
So where does that leave the rest of the Cubs bullpen? Let’s try to game it out a bit.
As a reminder, there are eight spots available for relievers, and assuming everyone has normal and healthy springs (which never happens), here’s where we are at the outset:
Daniel Palencia, RHP (Closer) Phil Maton, RHP (primary set-up man) Hunter Harvey, RHP (leverage righty) Caleb Thielbar, LHP (leverage lefty) Hoby Milner, LHP (leverage lefty) Jacob Webb, RHP (middle relief)Let’s pause there on those six. Again, assuming a normal spring rollout, I think these six players are locked into the Cubs bullpen for Opening Day. Palencia, because he’s the closer, and the other five guys, because the Cubs just signed each to a big league deal this offseason.
Beyond them, however, is anyone’s guess.
Colin Rea is almost certainly going to be in that mix as a long-man/swing arm. In fact, he probably deserves to be included in that group above. The only reason I didn’t is because I could imagine some world where one or more of the other starting pitchers aren’t ready from the jump, providing a path for Rea to take some more starts at the beginning of the year.
If not, that brings our total to seven, with just one spot remaining for:
Javier Assad, RHP Could be a starter in the big leagues, could be a starter at Iowa (he has minor league options remaining), could be a reliever in the big leagues straight from the jump. My guess, however, is that he opens the year up as a starting pitcher in Iowa, ready to jump into the rotation as needed. Ben Brown, RHP Could be a starter in the big leagues, could be a starter at Iowa (he has minor league options remaining), could be a reliever in the big leagues straight from the jump. By now, we all know the story with Brown – his upside as a starter remains enticing, but he has not been able to put it together for any meaningful stretch of time. And with so much starting depth ahead of him (Horton, Boyd, Cabrera, Imanaga, Taillon, Steele, Rea, Assad, maybe even Jordan Wicks or Jaxon Wiggins), I don’t think he’ll be the first call-up as a starter, either. Brown also has upside as a reliever that hasn’t really been achieved because (in my opinion) he hasn’t been asked to commit to that path yet. Personally, I hope he starts the year out in Iowa as a reliever, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him stretched out to start the year, just in case. Porter Hodge, RHP In a perfect world, Porter Hodge would be in the big league bullpen from Day 1. We all saw his upside in 2024, when he put everything together and rose as far as closer for a team that was trying to win. Unfortunately, 2025 wasn’t particularly kind to him, so he still has a lot to prove to re-earn that opportunity. © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports Gavin Hollowell, RHP The Cubs claimed Gavin Hollowell off waivers back in August of 2024, and he’s thrown just 10.2 IP for the big league team since. The front office is undoubtedly intrigued by his unusual arm slot (it’s good to have different looks in the bullpen) and gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors, but his lack of command leaves a lot to be desired. He has the bones to be a big piece of the bullpen, and sometimes things click for relievers, but he’ll have to fight for a spot this year. He still has a minor league option remaining, too. Luke Little, LHP Little has been racking up miles making his way back and forth from Iowa the last three seasons. And as a gigantic (6’8″), hard-throwing left-hander, there’s a lot to like. Unfortunately, he, too, has dealt with significant command issues that have so far prevented him from sticking in the big leagues. The Cubs obviously like him, and I suspect we’ll see him this year, but with two lefties already in the pen, I don’t think he has the best chance to break camp with the team. Riley Martin, LHP Riley Martin was the Cubs 6th round draft pick in 2022 and was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. As another lefty, he’ll face a similar uphill battle to make the Opening Day roster, but I do think we’ll see him at some point this year. Martin, 27, reached Triple-A in 2024 and didn’t find much success (again because of too many walks), but he did get a little better last season in his second stint at the level: 63.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 30.7 K%, 13.4 BB%. He has three minor league options remaining. Jack Neely, RHP The Cubs acquired Nelly in the Mark Leiter Jr. trade a couple of years ago and had high hopes for him almost immediately (he was called up for his debut back in 2024). And guess what? He’s another big (6’8″), hard-throwing reliever with great strikeout stuff and no command whatsoever. The bones are there, but at some point, he (like Luke Little) needs to put it all together. I think he might have an outside shot at the pen, but he wouldn’t be the odds-on favorite. © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports Ethan Roberts, RHP The Cubs have loved Ethan Roberts and his all-world ability to spin the baseball (like literally one of the best in baseball) for a long time. In fact, if you remember back, he was the surprise addition to the big league roster back in 2022. But injuries have slowed him down, and he split last season in the minors (41.2 IP, 2.16 ERA) and MLB (9.0 IP, 6.00 ERA). With his stuff and trackrecord with the team, I think Roberts is a dark-horse candidate to make the team. But again, with options remaining and having not put it all together just yet, a trip to Iowa feels like the more likely outcome. Ryan Rolison, LHP The Cubs claimed Rolison, a former first-round pick, off waivers last month. He did spend significant time in the big leagues last season (with the Rockies), but wasn’t very good. However, he also put up much better results in relief at Triple-A last year, so he is probably one of those borderline guys for whom one change in a new organization could help him get over that hump at the Triple-A/MLB border. Odds of making the team out of camp are very low. Jordan Wicks, LHP I think the chances of Jordan Wicks breaking camp with the team as a reliever are next to zero. He’ll likely start the year out in the I-Cubs rotation, waiting for an opportunity to arise.Those are all the pitchers on the Cubs’ 40-man, though remember, there’s also the non-roster invitees: Jeff Brigham, Grant Kipp, Corbin Martin, Connor Noland, Connor Schultz, Collin Snider, and Trent Thornton. You can read about each of those guys by clicking on the links attached to their names. The short version is that they’re almost all deep long-shots to make the team, but each has some unique skill or connection (Tyler Zombro picks) that gives them a shot. I don’t think I need to remind anyone how Brad Keller went from non-roster invite to most important reliever last season.
And finally, there’s Jaxon Wiggins, the Cubs top prospect. On the one hand, Wiggins is a starter, and the Cubs will absolutely positively want him to focus on starting for the bulk of his career. On the other hand, teams often use the bullpen to break in starting pitching prospects (even top guys), especially someone like Wiggins, whose innings will be limited in 2026. I think the most likely outcome here is that Wiggins opens the year up in Iowa’s rotation. But from there, I could see him in the Cubs big league rotation if a need arises or the bullpen if they want to slow-roll his debut.
Now, I’ll remind you that almost without a doubt, there are going to be injuries this spring that change the entire look of the bullpen on Opening Day. But these are generally the options the Cubs will be exploring to fill those eight spots. So, beyond the obvious top-6 (or seven, if you include Rea), who would you put in there from the jump?
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