Yesterday, I took a deep dive into Ian Happ’s future with the Cubs and expected price tag in free agency (and/or on an extension). With so many players leaving the team this year (plus the exit of Owen Caissie via trade), I felt the extension conversation was worth having, especially around this time of year, when those talks tend to begin.
In case you missed that convo, here’s (part of) the conclusion:
In terms of an extension with the Cubs right now, then, I’d guess the most he’d be realistically able to tack on is two years (maybe 1+team option) after 2026. So, given that makes $19M in 2026, maybe a REALISTIC FOR THE CUBS new deal that starts immediately (i.e., replaces 2026) is something like: 3 years, 45M (i.e., tacking on two years and $26M in new money to keep him in Chicago through 2028).
OR, more likely, something that includes just one more guaranteed year, but another club option/buyout for 2028. Think something like two years, $35M with a $5M buyout and $15M club option for 2028.
But frankly, I just don’t see the Cubs pushing hard for an extension with Happ this spring. If he’s going to stick in Chicago for his entire career, it’ll probably have to be ironed out next winter. If he wants max money, he’ll probably get it somewhere else.
There’s a lot more context, player comps, and assumptions laid out in the original post, though, so check that out for the full story.
In the meantime, the other relevant name in this conversation is Seiya Suzuki.
© Geoff Burke-Imagn ImagesSeiya Suzuki Extension Talk
The Cubs’ other corner outfielder is six days older than Ian Happ and headed towards free agency at the exact same time. So any argument for needing or wanting to keep one generally applies to both.
Not that there aren’t differences.
With much more power and a higher overall offensive ceiling, Seiya Suzuki carries a starkly different profile than the better fielding, switch-hitting Ian Happ. And it’s nearly impossible to imagine the Cubs keeping both after this year. Of course, this conversation is less about who makes more sense for the Cubs long-term (if either guy even will) and more about some expected price tags. So let’s try that exercise again to see where we land.
Right off the bat, I’m having a little more trouble finding useful comps for a few different reasons. First, Suzuki has been both a DH and a middle-to-poorly rated right fielder. I think the Cubs are a little bit higher on his outfield defense, attributing most of the “negative” value to the occasional, but highly visible gaffe than anything “unplayable” long-term, but it still muddies the water. Second, his offensive ceiling is a little unclear.
I think we all know Suzuki comes with All-Star+ offensive production, occasionally sprinkling in something even better than that. But he also changed his profile quite a bit these last two seasons, trading in some contact and OBP for more power and strikeouts.
2022: 14 HRs, 24.7 K%, 118 wRC+ 2023: 20 HRs, 22.3 K%, 127 wRC+ 2024: 21 HRs, 27.4 K%, 137 wRC+ 2025: 32 HRs, 25.2 K%, 123 wRC+And the reason that changes things is that we know people will pay for homers. Look at what Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso got in free agency, recently. In other words, if Suzuki posts another 30+ homer season while playing consistent defense in right field, he might be in store for a lot more money next winter than I’ll project here. But if he still looks below average in right field, and is closer to the 20-homer, 120 wRC+ guy, that’s a different story.
Lastly, like Happ, Suzuki will also be made a qualifying offer, attaching him to draft pick compensation.
Looking back at the last six years of free agency, a few comps stand out:
2022 Nick Castellanos
Signed: 5 years, $100M (Phillies) Age: 30 Season before FA: 3.7 WAR; 140 wRC+, 34 HRs Qualifying Offer: RejectedRelative to Seiya Suzuki: This is basically a dream walk year scenario and future contract for Seiya Suzuki. In 2021, the year before hitting free agency, Nick Castellanos played poor right field defense, but hit a ton of homers while slashing .309/.362/.576 (140 wRC+) for the Reds. The big difference, however, was that Castellanos was heading into his age-30 season, two years younger than Suzuki.
2025 Anthony Santander
Signed: 5 years, $92.5M (Blue Jays) Age: 30 Season before FA: 3.2 WAR; 128 wRC+, 44 HRs Qualifying Offer: RejectedRelative to Seiya Suzuki: Here’s another poor-defensive right fielder who hit a ton before free agency and was able to score a five-year deal even after rejecting the qualifying offer. But once again, this is arguably a peak Suzuki offensive comp *and* Santander was, like Castellanos, two years younger than Suzuki at the time of free agency.
2026 Kyle Schwarber (5 Years, $150M)
Signed: 5 years, $150M (Phillies) Age: 33 Season before FA: 4.9 WAR; 152 wRC+, 56 HRs Qualifying Offer: RejectedRelative to Seiya Suzuki: This is a very imperfect comp, as Schwarber had turned himself into one of the premier hitters in baseball before hitting free agency. He’s also arguably the third best pure slugger in baseball behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. That gives him a lot more offesnive value than Suzuki right off the bat. On the other hand, Schwarber was actually one year OLDER than Suzuki will be when he hit free agency and has virtually NO defensive value as a bat-only DH.
Throw in the fact that Schwarber got his deal one year before the new CBA (when financial and rule uncertainty was at an all-time high for all teams), and you can at least understand some value in acknowledging this deal. It’s also the most recent comp, which matters too.
So where does this leave us? Assuming a *typical* Seiya Suzuki season in 2026, I think we’re landing somewhere around here.
Years:
Absolute ceiling (unlikely): 5 years Should ask for: 4 years Should get at least: 3 yearsTotal Guarantee:
Absolute ceiling (unlikely): $100M Should ask for: $80 Should get at least: $60MBig, gigantic disclaimer: If Seiya Suzuki finally puts together a wall-to-wall great offensive season with 30+ homers, I do think he can reach his ceiling numbers here. But I think it’s just as useful for us to expect a 90th percentile as it is a 10th percentile outcome (i.e., not very), so let’s just assume he has a typical year: 125-130 wRC+ with 25-30 HRs.
Where does that leave him?
On an extension with the Cubs that starts immediately (i.e., replaces his $19M salary in 2026), perhaps you can imagine them doing something like three years and $60M. That would give him his $19M in 2026 plus two additional years at a slightly pay raise: $20.5M AAV. Or maybe they’d try to do something with a club option like two years, $40M with a $25M club option and $5M buyout for 2028.
But if I’m Suzuki, I don’t think I’m going to be all too open to an extension. Suzuki, to me, has a much better chance of blowing the top off in free agency with just one big offensive season. And even if he is just his usual self in 2026, he’s still young and talented enough to generate plenty of interest in next winter’s market.
For these reasons, I could see the Cubs being a little more interested in an extension with Seiya Suzuki than Ian Happ. The ceiling is simply higher and they can definitely use his right-handed power bat when they’ve otherwise got lefties Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong anchoring the lineup.
As a fan, I hope the Cubs are able to keep Suzuki. I know his production has been uneven at times, but I really liked the sort of slugger he started turning into last season. And I think an extension now, before he puts it all together in 2026, could wind up saving the Cubs some money.
Speaking of Japanese sluggers … Shohei Ohtani will not pitch for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic. That sure makes sense given that he has had multiple arm injuries and pitched deep into the postseason in 2025. Ohtani also copied me by writing a children’s book.Shohei Ohtani wrote a children's book about Decoy saving Opening Day ?Here's an exclusive look at a few pages showing Decoy and Sho illustrations ❤️ pic.twitter.com/Xqc39ugDGJ
— MLB (@MLB) January 31, 2026 I still think you should get mine, instead:BREAKING: I wrote a children's book!It's about a little boy's first trip to Wrigley Field to sit in the bleachers and watch the Cubs. And it prepares them for everything they'll see, feel … smell, and more!I really hope you like it.Pre-order here: t.co/M1vOSVixtt pic.twitter.com/XDLyc7pPMh
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) January 28, 2026 Last night, Luis Arraez signed a one-year, $12M deal with the San Francisco Giants, who are reportedly planning to play him at second base. Seeing as Arraez rated out VERY poorly as a defensive first baseman, this has been raising some eyebrows, but the former 3x batting champ does have his own unique skillset that teams still value. As a reminder, the Giants were reportedly among the teams interested in trading for Nico Hoerner (the better version of Luis Arraez), so this likely takes them out of that race. Of course, based on the way Jed Hoyer spoke about Nico Hoerner, it doesn’t sound like he’s going anywhere anyway … no matter how badly the Red Sox want him:The Cubs are not moving Nico Hoerner. We had Jed Hoyer on this week. He will be a Cub on Opening Day. t.co/KDPSStyzN0
— David Kaplan (@thekapman) February 1, 2026MORE CUBS FROM BLEACHER NATION: Go Ad Free | Subscribe to the BN Newsletter | Listen to the BN Cubs Podcast
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