Russian troops have withdrawn from a key airbase in Syria as Moscow loses influence across the Middle East.
Russian troops evacuated Qamishli airbase in the country’s north this week, with video footage showing troops loading up aircraft and moving cargo.
Russia has stationed personnel at the base since 2019, under agreements made with the Syrian former dictator Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow after his December 2024 ousting.
Russo-Syrian relations have been “lukewarm” since Assad’s fall, analysts said.
Moscow’s other key Middle Eastern ally, Iran, has been significantly weakened over the last year thanks to direct attacks by the US and Israel, and blows to its proxy militias including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
However, Vladimir Putin is far from down and out in the region, analysts have warned. While the withdrawal marks a significant climbdown in Russia’s military presence in Syria, analysts cautioned against reading the move as Putin accepting defeat.
A Russian helicopter flies over their base as they evacuate personnel in Qamishli, Syria (Photo: Ethan Swope/Getty)Russia still maintains a larger presence at Hmeimim airbase and a naval facility on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, which appeared unchanged this week. Some of the personnel, military vehicles and heavy weaponry from Qamishli airbase were reportedly being moved to the Hmeimim airbase, while some troops were returning to Russia.
“I’d be careful of framing this as Russia simply ‘losing’ the Middle East,” said Dr HA Hellyer, and expert in Middle East geopolitics and security at the Center for American Progress.
“What we’re seeing in northeast Syria looks more like a tactical pullback and a shifting of priorities, rather than a full retreat. Russia is stretched elsewhere and is having to be more selective about where it puts its resources.”
Interior defensive barriers in a Russian military base near Qamishli International Airport in northeastern Syria (Photo: Baderkhan Ahmad/AP)Hellyer said that Moscow’s ability to maintain a presence in Syria at all after the fall of Assad indicated “a degree of resilience” in Russia’s international position.
“Moscow’s influence is more limited than it once was, but it hasn’t disappeared, and that still matters in a region where staying power counts,” he said.
Caroline Rose, a Syria expert at the New Lines Institute, agreed that the move should not be interpreted as a complete Russian withdrawal – and that it could indicate Moscow’s comfort on the world stage.
“Russia’s withdrawal from Qamishli indicates that Moscow is losing interest in keeping a strong military foothold in the country, despite lukewarm relations with the new administration in Damascus,” she said.
Rose said it was “clear that the Russians do not see the need for presence in the country’s eastern areas” and felt they no longer needed a deterrent posture against the US in the east, as Washington was preparing to withdraw its forces completely by the end of this year.
But the Russian drawdown does indicate a reduced importance on the regional stage, with the Syrian government increasingly able to stand alone without Russian backing.
The withdrawal comes as the new central government attempts to take control of the whole country, including areas controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Russian military base at Hmeimim airbase near Latakia, Syria (Photo: Institute for the Study of War/Maxar) Some of the personnel, military vehicles and heavy weaponry from Qamishli airbase were reportedly being moved to the Hmeimim airbase (Photo: Institute for the Study of War/ Maxar)Government forces, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa have taken swathes of northern and eastern Syria from the SDF this month, with the new leadership attempting to assert its authority.
A fragile ceasefire between the two sides was extended on Saturday for a fortnight.
A gym at the Russian military base near Qamishli in northeastern Syria, where Russian forces are withdrawing (Photo: Baderkhan Ahmad/ AP)The Syrian government had been considering asking Russian forces to leave the base once it had pushed the Kurds out because “there’s nothing for them [the Russians] to do there”, according to a Syrian source cited in Russian news outlet Kommersant last week.
Rob Geist Pinfold, an international security expert at King’s College London said the withdrawal was “likely part of an unfolding agreement between the SDF and Damascus” which did not require Russian involvement.
“The base was there because Russia had ties to the SDF, so it’s part of a legacy policy to protect them from a potential Turkish offensive. But obviously now that the SDF has agreed to fold into the Syrian state the base is no longer fit for purpose,” he said.
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