One year on from us asking whether Tottenham Hotspur were in a relegation battle last season, we ask whether things are even more perilous this time around.
It’s 27 January and Tottenham, plagued with injuries, are in freefall.
Not for the first time this season, this weekend they dropped points against a promoted side despite taking a first-half lead. The latest disappointing result extends a dire winless run, during which they have slid ominously down the Premier League table.
The manager’s excuses are wearing thin on the fans, who have largely run out of patience with him after so many poor results. The ‘R’ word has started being mentioned in some circles.
A relegation battle is a real possibility.
This sounds a lot like the present day, but in fact, it describes the situation a year ago today, at the start of 2025.
Concerningly, history is repeating itself for Tottenham Hotspur.
The parallels stretch as far as the fact that exactly one year ago today, we asked the very same question on these pages: could Tottenham really get relegated?
One Year On at Spurs
Premier League‘Too Good to Go Down’? Could Tottenham Really Get Relegated?
12 months ago Ali TweedaleThe difference this year is the promoted sides aren’t hopeless. One of them is above Spurs and another is only two points behind them. The bottom three spots are getting concerningly close, with 18th-placed West Ham, who won away to Spurs only last week to make it two wins on the bounce, having reduced Tottenham’s cushion to the relegation zone to eight points. And they are far from the only team beneath Spurs who are, unlike Thomas Frank’s side, winning matches.
The truth is that nobody really expects Tottenham to go down. They are good enough to be fourth in the league phase of the Champions League, one good result against Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday away from finishing in the top eight and qualifying directly to the last 16 without the need for an energy-sapping, two-legged play-off.
But domestically, they have been absolutely dreadful, and unlike last year, they cannot rely on three teams definitely being worse than them.
To avoid going down, 40 points is always the milestone that teams aim for. Tottenham are currently 12 points off that mark and have 15 games left to get those points. That sounds perfectly doable.
But looking back over Spurs’ last 15 Premier League games, they’ve only picked up 14 points. And at the beginning of that run, they at least had a bit of confidence to lean on. Following Saturday’s 2-2 draw at Turf Moor, which followed defeats to Bournemouth (previously without a win in 11) and West Ham (previously without a win in 10), self-belief must be at rock bottom.
What’s more, with West Ham finding form, and Leeds and Nottingham Forest both also picking up points recently, there’s even the chance that the points total needed to survive is higher this season. If Tottenham repeat their form from their previous 15 matches over their remaining games of the season, they’ll reach 42 points. And they seem to be getting worse with every passing week, so there’s no guarantee they’ll even be able to reach that total. The outlook doesn’t look good at all.
However, like most reasonable viewers, the Opta supercomputer still has Tottenham down as outsiders for the drop. In the latest round of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, Spurs are relegated 164 times, or 1.64% of the time. Six teams are deemed more likely to go down.
Comparing that to their chances of finishing in the top five – which is, somehow, only nine points away – speaks volumes, though. They are given just a 0.62% chance of achieving what was presumably their pre-season objective and qualifying again for the Champions League (as it appears likely will once again be the case for fifth place in the Premier League).
And things are only going to get more difficult over the next few weeks, too. Spurs face an incredibly tough February, facing Manchester City, a resurgent Manchester United, Newcastle and Arsenal in the space of just 21 days.
For normal teams, playing three of those games on home soil would provide some comfort, but Spurs have the second-worst home record in the Premier League this season, having won only one of their last 10 on home soil. They’ve dropped points against many of the league’s worst teams in that time, so there’s little reason to believe they will beat any of the better ones.
We can use the Opta Power Ranking of every Premier League team to measure exactly how tricky any run of games is and, by that measure, Tottenham’s four upcoming games are more difficult than any other team in the division.
With relegation-threatened West Ham, Burnley and Nottingham Forest all way down the list, the situation might become even more desperate for Tottenham. If recent form is anything to go by, then by the time we reach March, Spurs could quite feasibly be even closer to the drop zone.
In another parallel with last term, Spurs again have Europe as a distraction. They won the Europa League last season while essentially giving up on the Premier League, and although they are extremely unlikely to repeat the trick with more European glory, there is still a slim possibility.
In fact, the Opta supercomputer gives Frank’s side a 1.45% chance of winning the Champions League this season. They are far from the favourites, but they are still the 12th-most likely team to win it, and have almost as much chance of doing so as they do of relegation (1.64%).
Which brings us to the microscopically slim chance that both of those events happen. According the supercomputer’s numbers, Spurs have a 0.024% chance of winning the Champions League and being relegated to the Championship. It’s almost certainly not going to happen, but there is as real a chance as there has been for any team in recent memory. Tottenham are almost unfathomably unpredictable, so if anyone was to do something quite so ridiculous, it could be them.
But before anyone starts dreaming of more silverware, Spurs need to address the rapidly rising chances that they will be relegated this season. Reducing that possibility with a very difficult upcoming month will be a huge challenge.
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History Is Repeating Itself For Spurs, but Are They Really in a Relegation Battle This Time? Opta Analyst.
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