We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League clash at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Bournemouth prediction and preview.
Brighton vs Bournemouth: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer heavily favours a Brighton win, with the Seagulls taking all three points in 52.2% of the pre-match simulations. Brighton have lost just two of their last 18 Premier League matches at the Amex Stadium (W10 D6), with both defeats in that span coming against Aston Villa. Having triumphed in the reverse fixture back in September, Bournemouth are looking to complete just their second-ever Premier League double over Brighton after doing so in the 2018-19 season.Brighton and Bournemouth are separated by just three points heading into Matchday 22, making Monday’s clash that much more important as both sides look to push towards the top half of the Premier League table.
The Seagulls are the better placed of the two, and may have their eyes on a UEFA Europa League spot after an impressive start to the new year.
A confident 2-0 home win over Burnley paved the way for Brighton to salvage a vital point with a 1-1 draw at Manchester City in their last league outing, as Karou Mitoma’s second-half strike cancelled out Erling Haaland’s first-half penalty.
That display of resilience will have undoubtedly pleased Fabian Hürzeler, and it was far from an isolated case. Brighton have now avoided defeat in seven Premier League matches this season when conceding the opening goal (W3 D4), more than any other side in the competition.
They carried that momentum into the FA Cup at the weekend, securing a vital 2-1 victory over Manchester United to reach the fourth round and further boost confidence ahead of their return to league action.
The Seagulls will be especially delighted to be back at the Amex Stadium, where they have been in red-hot form. They have lost just two of their last 18 Premier League home matches (W10 D6), with both losses coming against Aston Villa.
Bournemouth, though, have reason of their own to be optimistic. Andoni Iraola’s side claimed a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture last September, with goals from Alex Scott and the recently departed Antoine Semenyo.
They are chasing just their second-ever Premier League double over Brighton, having previously achieved it in the 2018-19 season, though the loss of Semenyo presents a clear challenge in repeating that feat.
The Ghana international signed off on his time at the Vitality Stadium in memorable fashion, scoring a stoppage-time winner to seal a 3-2 victory over Tottenham in Bournemouth’s last Premier League outing.
In doing so, the Cherries ended an 11-match winless run in the league (D5 L6) and picked up their first win since defeating Nottingham Forest in the final week of October.
But any momentum gained from that victory was quickly checked by their recent FA Cup disappointment. An end-to-end contest with Newcastle United finished 3-3 after extra-time before former Cherries goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale came to the fore to down his old club in a 7-6 penalty shootout.
Despite that elimination, there were still positives for Iraola to take, though with Semenyo having already hit the ground running in Manchester, the Spaniard must now find a solution to fill the winger’s attacking void.
Bournemouth are also aiming to win back-to-back league matches for the first time since August, when they managed a three-game winning run, with the final two victories coming against Spurs and Brighton, respectively.
One player who could be tasked with greater attacking freedom is 19-year-old Junior Kroupi. The French youth international has already made a positive impression this season, including scoring Bournemouth’s second goal in the victory over Tottenham.
Kroupi has scored seven Premier League goals this season, with only four non-British teenagers ever netting more in a single campaign: Nicolas Anelka in 1998-99 (13), Robbie Keane in 1999-00 (12), Romelu Lukaku in 2012-13 (14) and Kelechi Iheanacho in 2015-16 (eight).
For Brighton, Hürzeler will once again be relying on Mitoma. The winger is set to make his 100th Premier League appearance on Monday, becoming just the third Japanese player to reach that milestone after Maya Yoshida (154) and Shinji Okazaki (114).
Mitoma will also be keen to extend his strong record against the Cherries, having scored five Premier League goals against them – more than he has managed against any other opponent.
Brighton vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head
Brighton have been in excellent form at the Amex this season, and their home record against Bournemouth is particularly impressive.
They have lost just one of their last six Premier League home games against the Cherries (W4 D1), winning each of the last four in succession. Their most recent home defeat in this fixture dates back to a 5-0 drubbing in 2019.
Iraola, though, will call on his side to look only at their recent success in the reverse fixture – a 2-1 win at the Vitality Stadium in September – as they push to do the league double over the Seagulls for just the second time ever (after 2018-19).
Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction
Home advantage is sure to play a major role on Monday, with Brighton pegged as favourites to take all three points according to the Opta supercomputer.
The Seagulls won 52.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Bournemouth prevailed 23.4%% of the time. Meanwhile, a draw emerged as the outcome in 24.4% of the simulations.
Brighton vs Bournemouth Predicted Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion: Bart Verbruggen, Joël Veltman, Jan Paul van Hecke, Lewis Dunk, Ferdi Kadioglu, Yasin Ayari, Pascal Gross, Diego Gómez, Georginio Rutter, Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck.
Head coach: Fabian Hürzeler
Bournemouth: Djordje Petrovic, Alex Jiménez, Veljko Milosavljevic, Marcos Senesi, Adrien Truffert, Marcus Tavernier, Alex Scott, Lewis Cook, David Brooks, Junior Kroupi, Evanilson.
Head coach: Andoni Iraola.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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