Two wins from Santa Clara. Two quarterbacks built to close. One frozen night at Soldier Field, where the margin between legend and regret may come down to who has the ball last.
That’s the shape of Sunday night’s Divisional Round meeting between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams — a playoff collision that feels less like a schematic chess match and more like a referendum on late-game belief. Both teams arrive knowing exactly who they are. Both have quarterbacks who want the game tight in the fourth quarter. And both are two wins away from a Super Bowl trip to Santa Clara.
There’s no secret to how the Bears got here. When games reach the fourth quarter, they’ve been the most productive offense in football. Chicago leads the league in fourth-quarter points per game, points per drive, yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and has authored seven fourth-quarter comebacks — more than anyone else. They protect the football, generate explosive plays, and operate with a calm that belies their youth.
At the center of it is Caleb Williams, the ascending star who has turned chaos into opportunity all season. His ability to escape pressure, punish blitzes, and create offense after structure breaks has become Chicago’s most reliable late-game weapon. It’s not hyperbole to say he represents the Bears’ clearest edge in this matchup — particularly against a Rams defense that struggles with quarterback scrambles and gives up chunk plays when it sends extra rushers.
© Matt Marton-Imagn ImagesBut leaning entirely on fourth-quarter heroics is a dangerous way to live, especially against a team like Los Angeles.
Caleb Williams and the Bears Face Their Biggest Test
Bears Head Coach Ben Johnson acknowledged as much this week, pointing directly to a run game that has dipped late in the season — something that matters when January football becomes cold, violent, and unforgiving. The Bears want balance. They need it. Yet Johnson also knows what he’s up against. The Rams’ defensive front sheds blocks at an elite level and thrives on disrupting run concepts before they can develop. This isn’t a matchup where efficiency alone will be enough. Chicago will need explosives on the ground, something Johnson openly admitted they’re hunting for.
There is also the physical toll. With their early bye, 14 Bears starters will be playing their 15th straight week Sunday night, including four offensive linemen. That kind of workload has historically been unforgiving in the Divisional Round. The last team to survive it? The 2016 Packers. The Bears are pushing against both history and fatigue.
And then there’s the stage.
The Bears haven’t won on Sunday Night Football since 2018 — against these same Rams. They haven’t played a colder game this season. Temperatures could dip to five degrees, winds are expected to whip across the lakefront, and the wind chill may push conditions into subzero territory. This won’t be finesse football. It will be survival football.
Which brings us to the other quarterback.
Matthew Stafford has spent his entire career waiting for moments like this. While Detroit rarely afforded him January opportunities, his time in Los Angeles has cemented his reputation as one of the great late-game closers of his era. Stafford led the league in deep touchdown passes this season. On throws over 10 yards, he produced more yards and touchdowns than any quarterback in football, with a league-leading EPA that borders on absurd.
Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn ImagesAnd it all flows from play action, the lifeblood of Sean McVay’s offense. No team uses it more effectively. No quarterback is more lethal with it. The Rams average more than 100 yards and a touchdown per game off play action alone, and Stafford has thrown 20 touchdowns against just one interception in those situations.
That’s a problem for Chicago.
The Bears allowed the second-most touchdowns on deep passes this season and struggled mightily against play action, surrendering some of the league’s highest yardage totals off it. Their run defense compounds the issue. Los Angeles thrives on outside-zone concepts and under-center runs, precisely the areas where Chicago has been weakest. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum don’t need perfect blocking to be effective. They need patience, leverage, and one crease.
This is why the Rams are dangerous. They don’t need to dominate for 60 minutes. They just need to stay within reach long enough to let Stafford do what he’s always done.
What makes Sunday night fascinating is that the Bears can say the same thing.
Statistically, impossibly, these two teams mirror each other in the fourth quarter. They are tied in touchdowns scored, EPA per play, and yards per play over the final 15 minutes. The difference is on defense, where Los Angeles generates far more pressure late and forces quarterbacks into mistakes. Chicago’s defense has been more opportunistic than dominant, capable of takeaways, but vulnerable if left on the field too long.
Which is why this game feels destined to narrow.
It’s not hard to envision a scenario where the first 58 minutes decide whether the final two even matter. If the Bears can’t slow the Rams’ run game or survive play action early, Williams may not get enough chances to work his magic late. If Chicago controls tempo, forces Stafford into obvious passing situations, and finds even modest success on the ground, the pressure shifts entirely.
David Banks-Imagn ImagesThe history between these franchises only deepens the moment and the contrast. The last time the Bears and Rams met in the playoffs was the 1985 NFC Championship Game, a 24–0 Chicago win at Soldier Field powered by one of the greatest defenses the NFL has ever seen. That team bludgeoned opponents into submission on its way to a Super Bowl title. This Bears team is built differently. The 2025 version has been carried not by an all-time defense, but by one of the most explosive and efficient offenses in franchise history.
Mike Ditka stalked the sideline then, already cemented on Chicago’s Mount Rushmore. Ben Johnson does now, hoping to earn his place there one January at a time. Whether it’s his open disdain for Green Bay, his cerebral calm on the sideline, or his ability to endear himself to a fan base desperate for something real, Johnson has already begun carving his own lane. A win Sunday wouldn’t put him alongside Ditka — but it would move him closer.
All of it feeds into the same truth.
This isn’t about schemes anymore. It’s about resolve. About whose quarterback is calmer when the field shrinks, the air hurts, and the clock refuses to slow down.
Two wins from Santa Clara. Two quarterbacks who want the ball last.
On Sunday night at Soldier Field, one of them will get it, and the other will watch the season end in the cold.
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