Why didn’t Southern California rents soar after last year’s horrific wildfire destroyed roughly 12,000 structures?
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed rental stats from ApartmentList, which tracks costs by combining federal housing figures and pricing patterns from its own listing service for 49 cities in the six-county Southern California region. The stats include both apartments and rental homes.
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In those 20 fire-adjacent cities, where typical rents were $2,127 per month in December, rents fell 0.8% in 2025. Yes, a drop.
And that was a slightly larger slip than the 0.1% dip of 2024. These minor slips followed the average 2.1% yearly gains in the pandemic-twisted 2018-2023 period.
Contrast those trends with the slightly firmer pricing in the 29 Southern California cities farther from the destruction.
December’s $2,296 monthly rent was up 0.1% from the previous year, after rising 0.2% the year before. Roughly speaking, no change for two years after increasing at a painful 5.4% annual pace in 2018-2023.
I’m not ignoring the pain of those forced to relocate because of the wildfires. Nor am I overlooking the budget-busting levels of rent itself.
But for most Southern California renters, these stats show only minor rent swings last year — on par with relative flatness the year before and well below previous hikes of the pandemic era.
RELATED: An aerial comparison of Eaton fire aftermath nearly 1 year later
You can quibble with the math. Rent stats are by no means perfect. Individual experiences often differ from the story told by industry benchmarks.
But overall, this is a rare dash of good news for financially stressed tenants.
Why no pop?
A curious combination of forces created the surprising stability and regional divide in local rent pricing.
ApartmentList’s city figures show rents in fire-distant markets are modestly more stable, a hint that wildfires created rental demand farther away from the fire zone.
Do not forget that the local job market was wobbly in 2025. That can dampen rent hikes when tenants are monetarily insecure. Paychecks are often overlooked when tracking housing costs.
Also, don’t overlook Southern California’s size. It’s hard to fathom that 12,000 structures are gone. However, these 49 cities alone have 12 million residents, a heft that helped absorb the fire-linked boost in housing demand.
Plus, a pandemic-inspired building surge — more modest in California than the rest of the nation — helped to put a lid on apartment rents here and elsewhere, too.
Statewide, ApartmentList found a median rent of $2,154 in December; tenants paid 0.8% more last year, up from 0.9% in 2024, after average yearly increases of 2.8% in 2018-2023.
Nationally, December’s $1,356 monthly payment was down 1.3% from last year, after falling 0.6% the year before. A construction boom forced many landlords to discount their units to fill them up.
It’s a sharp reversal from U.S. rents jumping at a 4.2% yearly pace in 2018-2023.
Not just these numbers
Surging rents weren’t found in other price measures.
Contemplate Zillow’s rent math, which also covers apartments and homes.
RELATED: An aerial comparison of Eaton fire aftermath nearly 1 year later
Rents in Los Angeles and Orange counties were up 3.5% in the year ended in November. San Diego up 2.3%. The Inland Empire and Ventura County were up 2%.
Or peek at Cotality’s indexes for house rentals.
These figures also show modest price hikes. L.A. County house rents rose 2% in the year ended in October. Same for San Diego. Orange County was up 1.9%. Ventura County, up 1.3%. And the I.E. rose 0.7%.
And all but one of the price benchmarks from these two real estate trackers show 2025 rent hikes smaller than the previous year.
Thankfully, dire predictions of skyrocketing housing costs made during the wildfire’s immediate aftermath didn’t come true.
Local details
Consider the past year’s rent swings from ApartmentList at the city level for the fire-adjacent markets.
Thousand Oaks’ 3.4% rent hike was Southern California’s second-largest. Monrovia rose 3.2%, No. 3 regionally. And fire-scarred Pasadena rents were up 2.4%, seventh-largest across the six counties.
But only three other fire-close cities had rent gains: Brea (2.3%, No. 8), Ventura (1.4%, No. 11) and Culver City (0.7%, No. 16).
Rents in the 14 other fire-adjacent markets fell in 2025.
The steepest slip was West Hollywood’s 2.9% decline in rent, the second-largest regional fall of 2025. Ontario, off 1.7%, was No. 7, West Covina, off 1.7%, was No. 8, Simi Valley, off 1.6%, was No. 9, Santa Monica, off 1.5%, was No. 10, and Santa Clarita, off 1.4%, was No. 11.
Plus, the region’s population giant, the city of Los Angeles, saw rents fall 1.3% over the year, the 12th-largest regional dip.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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