The British government fear a US operation to seize a Russian-flagged oil tanker 200 miles off the coast of Scotland could spark retaliation from Vladimir Putin.
The US military is in pursuit of the tanker after it fled Venezuela to escape Donald Trump’s naval blockade, and it is currently in the North Atlantic.
US forces – including AC-130 gunships – have been seen arriving at a base in England in recent days as the vessel approached. It is due to pass into European waters within hours.
European security officials have told The i Paper that urgent talks are “ongoing” to try and prevent the situation escalating.
The talks are taking place between the UK and its European allies, according to a maritime security source with knowledge of the discussions.
They said there is a “fear” any attempted interception could spiral out of control.
Any attempt to seize a Russian-registered vessel would likely lead to a major flash-point with Moscow, but despite this the Trump administration has reportedly drawn up plans to seize the vessel.
The scope of any potential official retaliation is likely to be limited to diplomatic complaints, which would fall on deaf ears in London and Washington.But the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive ‘grey warfare’ on the West would give Putin a number of options, including cyber attacks, to hit back.
The source told The i Paper: “Most nations are afraid of a direct confrontation with Russia.
“There are talks ongoing at a bilateral level on how to act.
“I know that Denmark and the UK have discussed it. Russia is expected to act if a Russian ship is seized.”
According to The Times, the shadow tanker is being monitored by RAF aircraft.
How Trump’s pursuit has unfolded
As the Guyana-flagged Bella 1, the tanker had been preparing to pick up oil from Venezuela last month, but disappeared from trackers after a failed interception by the US Coast Guard.
When it re-appeared on open-source trackers in the middle of the Atlantic, it had been re-named the Marinera, and was showing as registered in Russia. The crew has also painted a crude Russian flag on its side.
The Kremlin has been using a ‘shadow fleet’ of foreign-flagged oil tankers to evade global sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine.
The ship is is one of 16 oil tankers, according to The New York Times, that have been trying to escape the US naval blockade of Venezuela in recent days.
Two other oil tankers have been intercepted by US forces since last month for trading Venezuelan oil.
On December 10, the tanker Skipper was halted and seized by the US Coastguard. On December 20 the Centuries was intercepted and boarded, but not seized.
The U.S has been seizing sanctioned oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, including this operation on December 10 (Source: US Attorney General)US surveillance aircraft flying from RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk have continued to shadow the tanker as it crossed the Atlantic, and on Monday an MH-47G – the US Army’s specialized helicopter for Special Operations Forces – conducted a test flight over the UK, according to open source flight data.
Two AC-130 gunships were also filmed arriving at Mildenhall at the weekend, and a number of CS-17 transport flights have also been recorded arriving – prompting speculation the US is beefing up its presence in preparation for any move to seize the ship.
Further low-altitude test flights were conducted by other US special forces aircraft between RAF Fairford and RAF Mildenhall in Norfolk this week.
What the law says about intercepting ships
The US pursuit of the Marinera has sparked a major diplomatic headache for UK and European officials, leading to the bilateral discussions around how best to act in the wake of the White House’s overt criticism of Europe’s ability to stand up to hostile nations.
Under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ships of all states are to be given the right of innocent passage through the territorial seas. However, under the same convention a ship cannot change its flag mid-voyage – making the Marinera essentially stateless, under international law, and thereby subject to seizure.
Russia has reportedly sent a diplomatic request to the US to halt its surveillance of the tanker last month, but the US pursuit has not let up.
Emma Salisbury, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said European allies of the US now face a “very complicated international and legal situation,” and warned there are “multiple things that could go wrong.
“The US will be focused on its priorities regarding its embargo of Venezuela, but the recent registration of this ship as Russian brings in some uncomfortable possibilities for its presence in European waters.” She said.
“The UK should be careful to think through the ramifications of any response and to coordinate closely with European allies in particular.”
In May Estonia’s attempt to board a sanctioned Russian “shadow fleet” tanker named Jaguar caused a tense standoff where Russia sent a fighter jet into Estonian airspace to protect the vessel. The incident caused NATO to scramble jets in response while Estonia escorted the Jaguar out of its waters.
U.S gunships arrive at RAF Mildenhall on Sunday (Copyright: Military Aviation Channel)Elizabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the Marinera was “likely” to turn up in European waters, and said Trump will be “watching closely” to see how Europe reacts.
“The Trump administration will be watching closely to see if European nations will inspect or detain and that is fraught with risk for these countries,” she told The i Paper, “Russia has demonstrated what it is willing to do if you try and detain outside of your territorial waters…so its fraught with risk, either the risk of boarding and Russia then retaliating or not boarding and Trump reacting in some way.
In October, the Defence Secretary John Healey sent a clear message to Putin: “If Nato is threatened, we will act.”
The UK may now be tested on those words.
The Ministry of Defence were contacted for comment.
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