What looked like a clean, winner-take-all setup in the NFC South took another strange turn Sunday, because of course it did. When both the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost in Week 17, it appeared the division would come down to a simple Saturday showdown in Tampa Bay. Win, and you’re in. Lose, and you’re out. Except this NFL season has refused to cooperate with simplicity.
The NFC South Isn’t Done Yet — And the Falcons Are the Wild Card
Carolina (8–8) still controls its fate. Beat Tampa Bay (7–9) on Saturday, and the Panthers win the NFC South outright as the only team to reach nine wins. The Panthers, who have alternated wins and losses for more than two months, are coming off a 27–10 loss to Seattle but did beat the Bucs 23–20 at home in Week 16.
If Tampa Bay wins, though, the division is not automatically theirs. The teams would finish tied at 8–9, split the season series, and post identical divisional records. Tampa Bay would win the next tiebreaker — record in common games — but that’s where the Atlanta Falcons enter the picture and complicate everything.
Atlanta, which is already eliminated from playoff contention, has won three straight games — including a Monday night upset of the Rams — to climb to 7–9. If the Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, they’d reach 8–9 and create a three-way tie atop the division if the Bucs also beat the Panthers.
In that scenario, head-to-head tiebreakers among the three teams decide the division. Carolina swept Atlanta and split with Tampa Bay, giving the Panthers the best combined record. Tampa Bay would finish second, Atlanta third — meaning the Panthers could win the NFC South despite losing in Week 18.
Jim Dedmon-Imagn ImagesRaiders Hold the Inside Track for the No. 1 Pick — But Week 18 Still Has a Say
The race to the top of the 2026 NFL Draft board is finally starting to clear — and the Las Vegas Raiders are in control.
After Week 17, Las Vegas sits alone at the bottom of the league standings and enters the final weekend with roughly a 77 percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick, according to The Athletic’s NFL Simulator. The New York Giants, fresh off winning the Week 17 Toilet Bowl, are the only remaining team with a realistic path to jumping them, sitting at about 23 percent. Strength-of-schedule tiebreakers have eliminated everyone else.
For the Raiders, the math is simple — at least on paper. Lose at home in Week 18 to the Kansas City Chiefs, and the No. 1 pick belongs to Las Vegas.
Kirby Lee-Imagn ImagesEven if Las Vegas accidentally stumbles into a win, the door isn’t closed. A Giants win or tie against the Dallas Cowboys would still hand the Raiders the top pick. There’s also a more chaotic path: if the Raiders win, the Giants lose, and three of four specific games break the Raiders’ way, Las Vegas would still win the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and secure No. 1 overall. No matter what, the Raiders cannot fall lower than the No. 2 pick.
The Giants’ road is far narrower. New York must first lose to Dallas and then needs help elsewhere. To jump Las Vegas, New York would need the Raiders to beat Kansas City and at least two favorable results from a group that includes the 49ers, Bengals, Saints, and Lions. A Giants win could send them tumbling as far as the No. 7 pick.
So while the Raiders are firmly in the driver’s seat, Week 18 still has enough levers to pull that nothing is fully locked in yet. In a season defined by chaos, even the draft order isn’t ready to go quietly.
Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesWeek 18 Sets the Stage for a Chaotic NFL Finish
If the NFL was hoping for a calm landing to a long regular season, Week 18 had other plans.
Four division titles remain undecided, both conferences’ No. 1 seeds are still in play, and even the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft hasn’t fully settled.
The choice for Sunday Night Football was an easy one. The regular season will end in Pittsburgh, where the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet with the AFC North title and a playoff berth on the line. Win, and you’re division champs. Lose, and the season is over.
Saturday will carry its own drama. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Carolina Panthers in a matchup that likely decides the NFC South, though the door remains cracked for chaos depending on how the Atlanta Falcons factor into the tiebreaker math. In the Saturday nightcap, the San Francisco 49ers welcome the Seattle Seahawks with the NFC West crown — and potentially the conference’s No. 1 seed — at stake.
Week 18 rarely lacks intrigue, but this one has it all — the kind of finish that ensures nobody will be sitting back, relaxed, and watching casually when the regular season finally comes to an end.
NFL Playoff Picture: Four Divisions Will Be Decided In Week 18Extra Points
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