A decade ago, shifts in the way people were living felt dramatic and fast-moving.
Each year brought a notable increase in the size of the private rented sector and a drop in the share of households buying with a mortgage, fuelling debate about the direction of the UK housing market.
But times have changed. We are faced with the near certainty that an ageing, predominantly homeowning population will continue to push up levels of unmortgaged ownership.
At the same time, the proportion of affordable housing within the nation’s stock looks set to keep edging down – unless or until there is a meaningful uplift in state intervention and investment to expand that sector.
Yet according to the latest English Housing Survey results, released this month, mortgaged ownership appears to have hit its trough, and private renting plateaued at its peak.
On the face of it, this is a win. It is when we dig a little deeper that there is less to feel relaxed about.
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With continued assistance from the bank of mum and dad, the 25 to 34 year olds have continued to see an uptick in mortgage occupation, which has battled its way back up to 43 per cent of such households.
At the same time, the proportion of this cohort in the private rented sector appears to have fallen, though at 38 per cent it still remains significant.
But this masks the increasing number who continue to live with their parents, given the prohibitive nature of housing costs and lack of new housing delivery, which have acted as a brake on household formation.
And so, with over 3.6 million 20 to 34-year-olds living with their mother and/or father across the UK, the political case to increase housing delivery remains undiminished.
The long decline in mortgaged homeownership among 35–44-year-olds appears to have stalled, holding at roughly 50 per cent. Private renting now accounts for over a quarter of this group.
This shift in who rents underpins the upcoming reforms in the Renters’ Rights Act. Today, one third of private renters – over 1.5 million households – have dependent children, and they stand to benefit most from the Act’s strengthened security of tenure.
The survey is a clear reminder that the pressures on the private rented sector come from many directions.
First-time buyers today tend to be people on higher incomes, while social renters are more often on lower incomes.
Private renters, however, come from a much broader mix of income levels. That’s because this sector is having to meet the needs of people who can’t access social housing and people who can’t yet afford a deposit to buy their own home.
With private landlords facing increasing regulation and, from 2027, higher income tax bills, there’s a real risk that the shortage of rental homes becomes even more entrenched.
Higher stamp duty surcharges on investment properties also make it harder for landlords to reshape or grow their portfolios, limiting flexibility in the sector.
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And at a time when we aren’t building enough homes of any tenure to relieve pressure on the rental market, losing more landlords could widen the divide between tenants who can access suitable housing and those who cannot.
Those with a committed long-term landlord in a home that will meet the future needs of their household for the foreseeable are alright Jack. But others, particularly those who are looking for somewhere to rent, are likely to feel the sharp end of the scarcity of supply.
And those who have the means to progress to home ownership may welcome smaller landlords leaving the sector, but those for whom this is not an option will sleep less easily.
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