We look ahead to Saturday’s MLS Cup final at Chase Stadium with our Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction and preview. Will it be Lionel Messi or Thomas Müller who comes out on top?
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps: The Key Stats
Inter Miami are the favourites to get their hands on a first MLS Cup title, winning 51.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. The Vancouver Whitecaps have won their last two matches against the Herons, which came in the CONCACAF Champions Cup earlier this year. The only MLS meeting between the two teams went in favour of Inter Miami thanks to goals from Robert Taylor and Leonardo Campana.After an enthralling season in Major League Soccer, the 2025 campaign comes to an end this Saturday as Inter Miami and the Vancouver Whitecaps battle it out for their first MLS Cup trophy.
Under the guidance of Javier Mascherano and led by Lionel Messi, Miami finished third in the Eastern Conference and cruised past Nashville SC, FC Cincinnati and New York City FC to reach the showpiece match.
Indeed, Miami became the first team in MLS history to record three straight wins by four or more goals (regular season or play-offs), but they will face a stern test this time around.
Vancouver also entered the season under new management with Jesper Sørensen, and the 52-year-old got the Whitecaps ticking again as they took second place in the Western Conference behind expansion outfit San Diego FC.
They overcame FC Dallas, Los Angeles FC and then San Diego in the Western Conference final to set up a tie with Miami, but only one can lift the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy for the very first time.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps Head-to-Head
Prior to this year, the Whitecaps had advanced just twice in the MLS Cup play-offs. This will be only the fourth all-time meeting between the two sides, with Vancouver getting the better of the Herons 5-1 on aggregate in their two-legged CONCACAF Champions Cup semi-final tie in April and May in what were their first two games against Messi.
The only teams to defeat a side featuring Messi in three straight matches in which he appeared are Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
The Inter Miami number 10 will want to stop that run, but comes up against a familiar foe in Thomas Müller, with the pair taking their previous European and international battles onto the MLS’ grandest stage.
Messi has taken on Bayern Munich legend Müller six times at club level during his stints with Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, winning just once in the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League.
The Argentine netted a brace in a 3-0 first-leg victory in the semi-finals of the competition as the Blaugrana went on to lift a fifth European crown, but Müller has often had the better of this battle not only with Bayern, but also with Germany too.
Müller has won seven of his 10 overall meetings against the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner, the most notable coming in the 2014 World Cup final. Indeed, of those matches, the German has found the back of the net six times to Messi’s three, one of which came for Argentina.
But there is no doubt that 2025 has been Messi’s year in the MLS. He registered a phenomenal 56 goal contributions in 33 appearances (35 goals and 21 assists), 16 ahead of Anders Dreyer in second.
Indeed, Messi became the first player in MLS history to finish a regular season with at least 18 goals and 18 assists. He rounded out on 29 goals and 19 assists, securing the Golden Boot ahead of Nashville’s Sam Surridge and Los Angeles FC’s Denis Bouanga (24 goals each).
However, Müller has made an immediate impact since joining Vancouver as a free agent in August following a trophy-laden 17-year spell with Bayern. Since his debut, only Dreyer (20) Bouanga (19) and Son Heung-min (18) have registered more goal contributions than Müller’s 14 among players from teams in the Western Conference.
And the 36-year-old has seemingly brought his winning mentality with him. He grabbed a goal and an assist as the Whitecaps clinched their fourth consecutive Canadian Championship in October, claiming his 35th career trophy to surpass Toni Kroos as the most decorated German player.
But Müller and Messi are not the only legendary talents on show, with Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba bringing the respective curtains down on their glittering careers this weekend.
It will be Busquets’ 831st club appearance in all competitions, while Alba will play for the 677th and final time, though the Spaniard has certainly been one of the standout players in Miami.
Indeed, the left-back has registered 35 assists and secondary assists combined during his two-year stay in the United States, with only Victor Vazquez (37), Alejandro Pozuelo (40) and Carles Gil (91) registering more among Spanish players to have played in the competition.
Miami’s abundance of experience could well turn the game in their favour, especially at Chase Stadium. Across the 2025 season, the Herons had more home wins (14) than any other team, though Vancouver managed nine victories on the road, a total only Cincinnati (11) and San Diego (12) can better.
And Miami will have to be wary of Brian White, who scored two of Vancouver’s three goals in their conference final win, taking his total to 18 goals for the year (regular season & play-offs). Over the last three regular seasons and playoffs, his 50 goals are the third-most in MLS (Bouanga 72 and Messi 57) and 16 more than any other American.
But for both Messi and Müller, history awaits. Ahead of this campaign, Vancouver had never gone beyond the quarter-finals of the play-offs, while Miami’s best performance in the post-season came in 2024, when they were dumped out in round one.
Messi will, however, want to keep the tradition of winning a trophy in every season he has played in Florida, having lifted the Leagues Cup in his debut campaign before adding the Supporters’ Shield to his collection one year later.
This will be his 26th career final (excluding super cups), with his team winning 17 of them (including two penalty shoot-out victories). Messi has 24 career goal contributions in those 25 finals (18 goals, 6 assists), but has not been involved in a goal in the last two (Copa America 2024 and Leagues Cup 2025).
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has predicted the MLS Cup to find a new home in Miami, with Mascherano’s men winning 51.3% of the data-led simulations inside 90 minutes. Vancouver, meanwhile, are handed a 23.9% win probability after 90 mins, slightly lower than the 24.7% chance of a draw, which would send the final to extra-time.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps Predicted Lineups
Inter Miami: Rocco Ríos Novo, Marcelo Weigandt, Maximiliano Falcón, Noah Allen, Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets, Baltasar Rodríguez, Rodrigo De Paul, Tadeo Allende, Mateo Silvetti, Lionel Messi.
Head coach: Javier Mascherano
Vancouver Whitecaps: Yohei Takaoka, Édier Ocampo, Mathías Laborda, Ralph Priso, Tate Johnson, Sebastian Berhalter, Andrés Cubas, Emmanuel Sabbi, Thomas Müller, Ali Ahmed, Brian White.
Head coach: Jesper Sørensen
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of the MLS Cup this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction: Lionel Messi and Thomas Müller Do Battle for MLS Cup Final Glory Opta Analyst.
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