Oklahoma’s victory at Alabama registers lowest postgame win expectancy of Week 12 ...Middle East

Oklahoma’s victory at Alabama on Saturday was wild and crazy, and it took a ton of Crimson Tide mistakes to get it done.

Alabama hadn’t lost at home since early in the 2023 season, with the loss snapping the Tide’s 17-game home winning streak. Those fans at Bryant-Denny Stadium were stunned afterward, as another streak came to an end, with Bama’s 8-game win streak coming to a sudden halt. Oklahoma was happy to take advantage of all those Alabama mistakes in the dramatic 23-21 victory, and the chaotic nature of the win was reflected on Sunday morning when the postgame win expectancy numbers were crunched by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

The Sooners’ victory was the very lowest of the low among the unlikely winners in those postgame win expectancy numbers. According to Connelly’s numbers, Oklahoma’s postgame win expectancy was only 4.8%, by far the lowest of all the low win expectancy numbers.

The next-lowest number was Clemson‘s 13.4% postgame win expectancy in its Friday night upset at Louisville. That percentage was still a big increase over Oklahoma’s number, which reflects how much had to happen for the Sooners to get out of Tuscaloosa with the gigantic victory.

Alabama’s 3 turnovers, 2 fumbles lost and 1 very costly interception, directly led to OU’s win, and that certainly led to the Sooners’ very low postgame win expectancy. But nobody asks how you get it done, only that you get it done, and Oklahoma was as opportunistic as it gets in breaking those hearts in Tuscaloosa in Week 12.

Here is Connelly’s full list of the teams with the lowest postgame win expectancy in Week 12:

Bama 4.8%Clemson > Louisville 13.4%UNLV > USU 15.8%SHSU > Delaware 31.3%LSU > Hogs 36.0%Navy > USF 36.8%USC > Iowa 44.6%K-State > OSU 47.2%SDSU > Boise 47.8%Another funky week!Full list: t.co/yQtdgyQGgz

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 16, 2025

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