It was expected, but now we know it’s officially happening: 27-year-old Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai will be posted by the Seibu Lions this offseason for MLB teams to make offers. He will be one of the most highly sought-after starting pitchers on the market, and the Cubs have been speculatively listed among the possible suitors.
ing process lasts up to 45 days, and historically, top Japanese players have been posted around the end of November, allowing negotiations to take place up to around the middle of January. Then again, Munetaka Murakami has already been posted, so maybe things are going to move up a bit this year? We’ll see.
We’ll also see, when Imai is officially posted, whether the Chicago Cubs will be seriously involved.
From our previous discussion of Imai:
Tatsuya Imai, 27, has been about 25 to 30% better than league average in the NPB by ERA- over the last four years, with peripherals that have gotten better and better over the years. This past season, he paired a 27.8% K rate with a 7.0% BB rate, and posted a 1.92 ERA over 163.2 innings, and it’s not hard to see why now might be the time to capitalize on a move to Major League Baseball.
Part of what will make Imai so intriguing to MLB teams, in addition to his age, is that he’s one of the hardest-throwing starters in Japan. He sits 95mph+, and apparently reaches 99mph. Couple that with a slider, changeup, splitter mix, and the pieces are there for a guy to succeed in the transition to MLB.
For that reason, the expectation is that Imai’s contract will likely be in the nine figures – Jeff Passan heard guesses in the $140 to $150 million range, and that’s before the $20+ million posting fee – and that’s where the questions will come in about whether the Cubs will be sufficiently aggressive to sign him. The Cubs aren’t perpetually out on nine-figure pitchers, but the last one they signed was Yu Darvish some seven years ago.
Maybe Tatsuya Imai’s age will spur the Cubs on a bit more than usual, together with the ability to keep building out the Japan pipeline. But you have to figure that Imai will be highly sought-after, and you’re not only going to have to recruit him well to your city, you’ll also probably have to win a bidding war.
Of course, if you believe in the pitcher, then I would argue there is no team in baseball that benefits more from adding an impact, top-of-the-rotation arm. Yes, other clubs – most clubs? – could benefit as much as the Cubs. But more? No. The Cubs need a guy like Tatsuya Imai as much as any other team, and we saw it late in the year.
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