We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League game at Parc de Princes with our Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich prediction and preview.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Stats: The Key Stats
Though they have failed to score in their last four games against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League, PSG are considered narrow favourites by the Opta supercomputer, coming out on top in 39.9% of simulations. PSG have scored more goals than any other team in this season’s Champions League (13), the most netted in a side’s first three games since Napoli scored 13 in 2022-23. This will be Bayern’s first Champions League match against the previous season’s winners since a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid in May 2018; a result which saw them eliminated from the tournament at the semi-final stage (lost 4-3 on aggregate).Paris Saint-Germain were the best team in Europe last season, becoming the first ever French side to win the continental treble, the crowning achievement of which was of course their lifting of the UEFA Champions League for the first time in their history.
From the outside looking in, it may appear to most that nothing has changed – they are top of the Ligue 1 table, and joint-top of the Champions League standings along with their opponents for this match, Bayern Munich.
But in truth, they are very much still warming up this season, having had to deal with a number of injuries to key players that may be a result of their lengthy participation in a number of tournaments last season, including the FIFA Club World Cup over the summer.
Take their usual front three for instance: 11 games into the current Ligue 1 campaign, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have combined for just 12 total starts.
Meanwhile, two of their stars in midfield, Fabián Ruiz and João Neves, rank only 16th and 19th respectively for league minutes this season among their squad.
In defence, last season’s central defensive pair of Marquinhos and Willian Pacho have started only two league games together.
It’s clear that manager Luis Enrique is making use of their extreme strength in depth to give his best players as much time as they need to return to full fitness before making an inevitable charge in the second half of the season.
PSG are getting closer and closer to full strength, and they put out a side at the weekend that more closely resembled their team of last season, though they still needed a 94th-minute goal from Gonçalo Ramos to defeat Nice.
They will need to be much improved if they are to defeat Vincent Kompany’s Bayern.
Arsenal fans would have every right to disagree, but Bayern can be considered the form side in Europe at the moment.
They have won each of their first 15 games in all competitions this season, the longest winning run from the start of a campaign for any team in Europe’s top five leagues.
At the weekend, despite facing a Bayer Leverkusen side who were unbeaten in 37 consecutive away games in the German Bundesliga, Kompany elected to rest Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Luis Díaz and Dayot Upamecano.
Bayern were three goals ahead before half-time.
They are quite simply obliterating all challengers this season, scoring 34 goals after nine Bundesliga games while only conceding four times in return.
This match against PSG, though, is undoubtedly their biggest test of the season and will give Kompany a chance to truly test his team’s level.
Indeed, PSG were actually the last side to inflict defeat on Bayern, beating them 2-0 in the quarter-finals of the Club World Cup in July. The Parisians second goal, which killed off the game in the 96th minute, was scored when they had only nine players on the pitch.
Bayern are looking to win four consecutive Champions League matches for the first time since winning their first four in 2023-24, while the last time they netted three or more goals in four games in a row was between September and November 2021 under Julian Nagelsmann.
If they are to succeed in this game, then Harry Kane will no doubt be central.
No player at a top five European league club has scored more goals in all competitions since the start of August than the England captain, who has now scored 22 times in 15 appearances despite failing to score against Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Saturday.
Kane could score in five consecutive Champions League appearances for the first time in his career, while only two other players have scored in five in a row in the competition as a Bayern player (Arjen Robben in October 2013 and Robert Lewandowski on three different occasions).
Bayern will be without long-term absentees Alphonso Davies and Jamal Musiala, while PSG will miss Doué and Illia Zabarnyi, who was sent off in their last Champions League match.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head
Paris Saint-Germain have lost each of their last four matches against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League, with this their longest ever losing run against a team in the competition.
Bayern have beaten PSG the most times in the Champions League, winning eight of their 14 meetings in the competition (L6). If the German side win here, they would also become the only team to have won three consecutive away matches against PSG in the Champions League (won the last two by 1-0 scorelines – April 2021 and February 2023).
PSG have failed to score a single goal across their last four meetings with Bayern in the Champions League; their longest run without scoring against an opponent in the competition.
Across the four games, they have attempted a total of 40 shots and hit the target on 14 occasions without finding the net.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Paris Saint-Germain were victorious in 39.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations. A win for Bayern Munich was close behind at 36.3%, while the chance of a draw sits at 23.6%.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Predicted Lineups
Paris Saint-Germain: Lucas Chevalier, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé.
Head coach: Luis Enrique
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Raphaël Guerreiro, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Konrad Laimer, Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Michael Olise, Lennart Karl, Luis Díaz, Harry Kane.
Head coach: Vincent Kompany
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic men’s and women’s football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Psg vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Can the Defending Champions End Poor Record Against Europe’s Most In-Form Team? Opta Analyst.
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