Back in August, while standing alongside President Trump in Alaska, Russian President Vladimir Putin chuckled while glancing back at the B-2 stealth bomber flyover. He understood its messaging. Yet he failed fully to understand just how much meaning Trump’s show of force was meant to convey to Putin and the Kremlin.
Now, less than two months later, the full meaning of the B-2 flyover is clear. Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s three principal nuclear facilities — Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz — was aimed at transforming Eastern Europe as much as the Middle East. It was an inflection point in Putin's and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s war against the West.
Trump himself made that clear in Egypt during the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire signing. Trump argued that the impetus for the deal “really started when we took out the nuclear capability of Iran.”
Hamas, now lacking Iran’s active support and gradually abandoned by Turkey and Qatar, was fast running out of options. Israel threatened to retake all of Gaza City, and Trump made clear he was on board, absent a deal.
Moscow is now reeling. With his key ally Iran neutered and Syria's pro-Russian regime overthrown, Putin finds himself on the outside looking in when it comes to the Middle East. Putin’s isolation was evinced by his canceling of an Oct. 15 Arab conference in Moscow. As Bloomberg put it, “There simply weren’t enough Arab leaders saying ‘yes’ to warrant holding a summit."
Contrast that with Trump's triumphant appearance with key Middle and Near East leaders in Egypt — of Egypt itself and of Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq and Pakistan. Flanking them were key NATO leaders from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, plus six others. Trump, like him or not, was a global powerhouse magnet in Egypt. Putin has essentially been reduced to bug repellent in the Arab world.
Team Trump understands its advantage and is rapidly building on the momentum of the cease-fire. Inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Oval Office on Friday — Trump’s first international meeting since returning from Egypt — is still more messaging aimed at Putin that he is done playing Kremlin games. The message for Hamas was delivered via B-2 bombers in Iran; Putin’s could be delivered by Tomahawks.
Shortly after Trump won a second term last November, we argued that World War III is Trump’s to win. Our suggestion was to begin in Ukraine. Instead, Team Trump flipped the script and started in the Middle East by building upon the Abraham Accords. Not only has this move clipped Putin in the region, but it has also set Beijing back in both the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.
One other key attendee in Egypt was Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. He leads the largest Muslim-populated country in the world. Subianto was seen talking to Trump at the summit, and Washington has long encouraged the strategic Indo-Pacific state to join the Abraham Accords. Xi views deepening ties with Jakarta as a crucial part of its so-called "neighborhood diplomacy."
Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited the Indonesian capital in May, whereupon Puan Maharani, the Speaker of the People’s Representative Council of Indonesia, reaffirmed her country’s commitment to the one-China principle.
But affirming one-China is one thing — acquiescing to Beijing retaking Taiwan is quite another. If Trump can successfully sway Subianto to join the Abraham Accords, he will indirectly strengthen Washington’s defense of Taipei.
Winning in the Indo-Pacific still requires Trump winning in Ukraine. Unlike Iran, no single hit to Putin will force Moscow to the negotiating table. Rather, as we argued on our weekly show on Tuesday, Team Trump must take a variety of steps to unnerve Moscow in order to defeat Putin and, by extension, Xi.
One of these steps is his approval of the sale of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, whose deep strike capabilities would allow Kyiv to target, among others, the Engels 2 airbase, Shahed drone facilities in Yelabuga and Tatarstan, and the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Russia.
Yet another step would be implementation of a NATO-led or coalition of the willing no-fly zone over Western Ukraine. This would free up Ukrainian air defense assets to protect critical infrastructure and support combat operations on the frontlines.
Trump should also close the Baltic Sea to the Russian shadow fleet that is transporting oil and gas to evade sanctions. Many of these same ships are likely being used to cut cables and launch surprise drone swarms like the one recently unleashed against Denmark.
Trump should also signal the Senate to pass secondary sanctions against Russia. Enforcing them would help bring Putin to his knees. Russia’s economy is reeling thanks to the war.
Trump's strike in Iran was a good start to winning World War III. Team Trump followed up by putting a win on the board in the Middle East by boxing out Putin and marginalizing Iran and Hamas in Gaza. Now, not only must Putin consider the Tomahawk missile, but the karma associated with the October 2025 surprise – munitions and weapons that can now be used in Ukraine.
To win in the Indo-Pacific and to deter Beijing militarily moving on Taiwan, Trump must win in Eastern Europe just as decisively as he has in the Middle East. That means expelling every last Russian soldier from every inch of Ukrainian territory.
Trump has momentum. He must now put Putin down for the count and send Xi a message that we intend to win the Russian and Chinese-instigated ideological global war against the West, one way or another.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014.
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