The news that Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire and hostage deal is a tremendous step toward ending a war that has raged for just over two years.
This war, which began with Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7 2023, has reverberated far beyond the streets of Gaza and the ravaged kibbutzim of Southern Israel.
Although there has been much coverage regarding Americans’ decline in support for Israel and anti-Israel bias, the data simply do not corroborate that.
This is not to say that Americans aren’t weary of the fighting, or that there is no desire for a cease-fire. Seventy-eight percent of respondents, including an identical number of independents, support a cease-fire, per Economist/YouGov polling. Similarly, a majority (56 percent) of Americans support President Trump’s recent peace plan, according to a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll.
Rather, it is to point out that the media routinely publishes polls with headlines that bury or minimize key takeaways that point to enduring support for Israel.
A recent Pew poll found that 79 percent are at least somewhat concerned about the remaining Israeli hostages not being returned to Israel, and 73 percent are at least somewhat concerned about Hamas attacking Israel in the future.
Moreover, a Quinnipiac University poll finds that a majority (56 percent) of U.S. adults overall believe U.S. aid to Israel should either continue as is or be increased, consistent with polling going back to February 2024.
And while these data points contradict the pervasive narrative that Americans increasingly oppose the Jewish state, one would be hard pressed to recognize that based on headlines alone.
To that end, a Washington Post survey released last week provided a clear example of how poll data on this highly sensitive issue is often not fully explained.
The poll made news with a headline claiming that a sizable contingent of American Jews are increasingly critical of Israel, including four in 10 saying "the country is guilty of genocide.”
That article went viral, earning thousands of retweets, particularly from far-left influencers eager to use it as evidence of fraying support for Israel among a group that should be the most supportive.
The problem is that the actual data was far less concrete.
While it is true that 61 percent of American Jews agreed that Israel has committed war crimes, 94 percent held Hamas guilty of war crimes against Israelis, and 68 percent held Hamas responsible for civilian deaths in Gaza.
Further 93 percent of American Jews said they were concerned about the remaining hostages and 85 percent were concerned about the threat Hamas poses to Israel.
Put another way, American Jews remain supportive of Israel. Thus, Democratic politicians should avoid believing this survey gives them license to further placate the extreme anti-Israel voices in their party.
In that same vein, an AP-NORC poll made headlines when it pointed out that “Half believe Israel’s military response in the Gaza Strip has gone too far.”
Forty-nine percent of Americans did say that, but left out that 45 percent said Israel’s response was “about right” or “not gone far enough.” Given the 4 percent margin of error, this should have been reported as a virtual tie rather than a sign of deteriorating American support for Israel.
Why is this important? Following the announcement of a cease-fire deal, far-left anti-Israel organizations have “vowed to keep up the struggle” against Israel’s right to exist. Palestinian Youth Movement and similar groups plan to continue protesting against any cease-fire which falls short of their goals to erase the world’s only Jewish state.
Likewise, the day Washington Post released their poll, another survey from the Anti-Defamation League and Jewish Federations of North America was published with startling findings.
According to the poll, American Jews are overwhelmingly concerned about antisemitism (79 percent), while majorities believe that antisemitism is “now a normal Jewish experience” (57 percent) or have personally experienced anti-Jewish hate in the last year (55 percent).
Democrats must be careful to ensure that extreme anti-Israel voices in their party do not lead to perceptions of being seen as the party that permits antisemitism. Otherwise, it will further erode their political viability among independents and moderates at a time when the party was already struggling with perceptions of being soft on crime.
Ultimately, reasons for cautious optimism exist, as an end to the fighting, which Americans clearly desire, finally appears possible.
The importance of returning the remaining 48 Israeli hostages, 20 of whom are presumed to be alive, cannot be understated, nor can the prospect of a future for Gazans without the influence of Hamas.
Positively, the data reflects that Americans recognize this, regardless of how the media frames it, or extremists portray it.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
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